UBS_Equities-US_Equity_Strategy_1Q25_Earnings_Brief_May_06_Simonds-115221320_21页_1mb

报告摘要

US Equity Strategy: 1Q25 Earnings Brief Summary

Date: 6 May 2025
Key Points:

Overall Earnings Performance:
- 60% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported results.
- Earnings are beating estimates by 8.3% aggregate, with 69% of companies exceeding projections.
- Consensus expects year-over-year (YoY) EPS growth at 10.0%, slightly revised from the current estimate of 9.6%.
Sector Performance:
- TECH+ Sector: Expected to outgrow the rest of the market (31.7% YoY EPS growth vs. 4.0% market average). Key drivers include strong revenue and margin expansion, though margins may contract slightly.
- Financials: Expected 6.6% YoY EPS growth. Non-Cyclicals and Cyclicals ex-Energy are expected to offset margin contractions through revenue growth, led by Healthcare and Utilities.
- Energy Sector: Expected to drag growth by 175% YoY, reflecting significant challenges.
Top TECH+ Companies:
- GOOGL: Expected 6.5% YoY EPS growth (actual 487% YoY).
- META: Expected 12.2% YoY (actual 36.5%).
- MSFT: Expected 6.9% (actual 17.7%).
- AMZN: Expected 38.7% YoY (actual 62.2%).
- NVDA: Expected 43.7% YoY.
Upcoming Earnings:
- 82 companies, representing 60% of the S&P 500's market cap, will report over the next five trading days.
Historical Insights:
- EPS revisions are expected to moderate compared to historical trends, driven by the strength of the TECH+ sector.
- Historical data shows that surprises (revenue and EPS) typically beat expectations by +/-0.25% and +/-1%, respectively.

This report highlights the divergent performance of sectors, with TECHNOLOGY leading growth, while Energy and Cyclicals face headwinds. The analysis underscores the importance of monitoring upcoming earnings and revisions for key market movements.

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