UBS_Equities-US_Equity_Strategy_4Q24_Earnings_Brief_January_29_Golub-113146819_18页_1mb

Report Summary: UBS US Equity Strategy - Q4 2024 Earnings Brief

• Date and Focus: January 29, 2025, authored by Jonathan Golub, covering Q4 2024 S&P 500 earnings expectations.

• S&P 500 Earnings: 19.2% of the index has reported; expected revenue growth is 4.5%, EPS growth 9.1%. Actual earnings are beating estimates by 6.4%, with EPS projected at 10.4% if revisions follow historical trends.

• Sector Analysis:

  • Financials: Strong performance due to favorable year-over-year comparisons, contributing 3.4% to S&P 500 EPS growth, expected to outpace others.
  • TECH+: Anticipated 23.6% EPS growth compared to the market's 5.1%, though individual forecasts vary (e.g., META 27.1%).
  • Other sectors: Non-Cyclicals at 3.5%, Cyclicals ex-Energy negative, Energy facing drag.
  • Adjustments: One-time items in earnings may distort results; numbers were adjusted for accuracy.

• Company Reports: Over the next 5 trading days, 132 companies representing 40.7% of S&P 500 market cap will report, including key names like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, and Exxon Mobil.

• Earnings Revisions: 4Q24 revisions lag historical trends; excluding TECH+, it's worse than average. 2025 revisions are less negative, driven by TECH+ strength.

• Historical Trends: Data shows fluctuations in revenue and earnings surprises, with recent growth trends indicating mixed performance but resilience.

• Valuation and Risks: Equity returns influenced by earnings, interest rates, and business cycles. UBS highlights potential conflicts of interest and standard disclaimers.

• Outlook: Upside from Financials and TECH+, with UBS recommending further monitoring based on sector-specific data and upcoming earnings.