牛津经济研究院-表面之下：技术驱动的系统性风险和持续的创新需求（英）-2021.10-151页_26mb

Summary of "Beneath the Surface: Technology-Driven Systemic Risks and the Continued Need for Innovation"

Core Content

This report, part of the Future of Financial Services series by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Deloitte, explores the role of technology in creating and amplifying systemic risks within the financial services ecosystem. It emphasizes the need for innovation and collaboration to mitigate these risks effectively.

Main Points

Technology's Dual Role in Risk

• Technology both increases and mitigates systemic risk in financial services.
• The accelerated adoption of technology in recent years has introduced new, complex risks that require attention.
• The report highlights the importance of understanding these risks and how they can be managed.

Key Research Objectives

• Identify evolving short- and long-term risks arising from increased technology use.
• Deconstruct these risks and explore potential scenarios and their implications.
• Explore mitigation strategies and innovative applications enabled by technology.

Methodology

• Conducted over 100 interviews, a survey, and seven global workshops with financial and technology experts.
• The workshops focused on both risk themes and mitigation strategies.
• A collaborative effort with Deloitte and other stakeholders was instrumental in shaping the report.

Key Findings

1. Unregulated and Partially Regulated Financial Players

• Novel business models, especially those at the periphery of financial services, are contributing disproportionately to systemic risk.
• Regulatory functions need to adapt to these new players, as traditional rules based on "size of book" are less relevant than the "size of network."
• Coordinated action across regulators (e.g., central banks, competition authorities) is necessary to review and tailor regulations for these players.

2. Importance of Network Over Book Size

• Systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) are traditionally defined by their size and financial indicators.
• However, the growing digital interconnectivity means that non-financial entities (e.g., cloud providers) can also pose systemic risks.
• The report calls for a shift in regulatory focus from entity-based oversight to activity-based and network-based assessments.

3. External Risk Management

• Ecosystem interconnections are no longer bilateral; they are increasingly complex and interconnected.
• Players must understand their entire ecosystem exposure to anticipate and manage risks such as cyberattacks and climate change.
• Forward-looking risk prevention and detection mechanisms are essential to address these challenges.

4. Collective and Foundational Solutions

• Mitigating systemic risks requires multilateral efforts and shared frameworks.
• Technology can enhance risk mitigation, but foundational solutions such as shared taxonomy and coherent frameworks are critical.
• Addressing financial crime and cybercrime necessitates joint efforts and information sharing across borders.

5. Emerging Sources of Influence

• New sources of influence are creating opportunities for market manipulation.
• These include digital platforms and data-driven models that extend beyond current protection mechanisms.
• Tailored regulatory approaches are needed to address these new paradigms.

6. Financial Exclusion

• While technology promotes financial inclusion, it can also lead to unintended consequences such as inaccessibility and algorithmic bias.
• These issues may hinder global financial prosperity and require attention in future risk mitigation strategies.

Risk Themes

Strategic Implications

• Financial leaders, regulators, and policy-makers must work together to anticipate and mitigate systemic risks.
• Enhanced data and analytical capabilities are needed to monitor and respond to emerging threats.
• The report does not provide detailed sectoral or geographical analysis, nor does it recommend specific mitigation strategies.
• It aims to guide stakeholders in understanding the potential impacts of technology-led systemic risks and exploring innovative solutions.

Conclusion

The report underscores the growing importance of technology in the financial ecosystem and the need for a holistic, collaborative approach to managing systemic risks. It serves as a foundational guide for industry players and policymakers to develop resilient strategies and frameworks that support innovation while safeguarding the financial system.