德勤-2021年银行和资本市场展望（英文）-2021.2-40页_1mb

2021 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report from the Deloitte Center for Financial Services outlines the outlook for the banking and capital markets sector in 2021, emphasizing the need for strengthening resilience and accelerating transformation. The pandemic has significantly impacted the industry, forcing banks to adapt quickly and re-evaluate their strategies in response to new challenges and opportunities.

Main Views

• Resilience and Transformation: Banks must enhance resilience across capital, technology, and talent. Long-term, they should accelerate transformation efforts to remain competitive.

• Pandemic Lessons: Banks have learned the importance of agility, flattening hierarchies, faster decision-making, and flexible workplaces. These lessons should be institutionalized for future success.

• Digital Transformation: The pandemic has accelerated digitization and served as a litmus test for banks' digital capabilities. Institutions that invested in technology have fared better, but even laggards can catch up with swift action.

• Sustainable Finance: Banks have a unique opportunity to lead in sustainable finance by reallocating capital, enhancing risk frameworks, and improving transparency and data reporting. Collaboration with regulators and industry groups is essential.

• Customer Engagement: While digital adoption has increased, customer satisfaction has not necessarily improved. Banks must balance digital and human interactions to maintain trust and loyalty.

Key Information

Financial Impact

• Loan Loss Provisions: The US banking industry may need to provision for $318 billion in net loan losses from 2020 to 2022.
• ROE Recovery: Deloitte estimates that the average return on equity (ROE) in the US banking industry could recover to 11.7% by 2022.
• Global ROE Trends: ROE for top 100 banks in North America, Europe, and APAC is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels, with low interest rates suppressing net interest margins (NIMs).

Megatrends and Pandemic Impact

• Accelerated Trends: Digitization, virtualization of the workforce, and focus on safety, sustainability, and cost reduction have been accelerated.
• Decelerated Trends: The sharing economy, urbanization, and global movement have slowed due to pandemic-related constraints.

Customer Engagement

• Digital Adoption: Increased use of mobile apps and digital services, with 44% of retail banking customers using their primary bank's app more often.
• Customer Satisfaction: Satisfaction with digital-only banking has declined in several regions, highlighting the need for hybrid engagement models.
• Strategies for Engagement: Banks should use AI, data analytics, and novel partnerships to create hyperpersonalized services and improve customer experience.

Talent Management

• Workforce Adjustments: Banks are implementing flexible schedules, remote work arrangements, and reducing workforce size in response to economic pressures.
• Resilient Leadership: Banks must focus on employee well-being and productivity, and move beyond these to enhance learning, teaming, and leadership.
• Technology Integration: Using AI, automation, and digital tools is crucial to support talent transformation and improve operational efficiency.

Sustainable Finance

• Role of Banks: Banks are expected to lead in sustainable finance, by allocating capital to net-positive economic activities and nudging client behavior.
• Challenges: Issues such as lack of global standards, insufficient data, and greenwashing remain, but efforts are underway to address them.
• Regulatory Focus: Regulators are increasingly focused on climate risk and are proposing new frameworks and standards to ensure transparency and accountability.

Key Actions for Banks

• Institutionalize Pandemic Lessons: Develop agile workforces, flexible talent models, and effective crisis management plans.
• Invest in Technology: Accelerate digital transformation, especially in core systems, and leverage AI, data analytics, and automation.
• Enhance Customer Engagement: Use a mix of digital and human interactions, intelligent data use, and novel partnerships to improve customer satisfaction and loyalty.
• Lead in Sustainable Finance: Work with regulators, clients, and industry groups to develop common metrics and standards, and integrate climate risk into risk management frameworks.
• Reassess Global Footprint: Many banks are reassessing their global operations and reconfiguring their office layouts to maintain resilience.

Conclusion

The banking and capital markets industry is at a pivotal moment, shaped by the pandemic's economic and operational impact. Banks must focus on resilience, transformation, and sustainable leadership to navigate the challenges and seize new opportunities. The digital promise in the front office is real, but customer satisfaction and retention remain critical. Talent management and sustainable finance are also key areas where banks can differentiate themselves and drive long-term value.