德勤：2023年银行和资本市场展望_70页_5mb

2023 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2023 banking and capital markets outlook highlights the challenges and opportunities that the industry faces in a fragile and fractious global economic environment. The report outlines key messages and strategies for banks to navigate through uncertainty and reposition for future growth. It emphasizes the need for innovation, customer-centric approaches, and regulatory alignment across different segments of the financial services industry.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

• The global economy is expected to remain fragile in 2023, with uneven growth and persistent inflation.
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, energy shocks, and monetary tightening will have uneven impacts across regions.
• Global GDP growth is projected to be around 3% in 2023, down from 6% in 2021, and will vary significantly by country.
• The US and Canada may perform better than the Eurozone, which is likely to face more severe energy-related challenges.
• Developing countries are expected to struggle with food and energy shortages, potentially leading to socioeconomic instability.

Interest Rates and Bank Profitability

• Interest rates are expected to diverge globally, with the US possibly pausing or decreasing rates in 2023 or 2024.
• Higher rates will boost net interest income (NII) for banks, especially those with a focus on commercial & industrial (C&I) and consumer loans.
• Net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to improve due to rising loan yields outpacing deposit rate increases.
• US banks may see higher NIMs and stronger loan growth compared to global peers.

Noninterest Income and Cost Controls

• Noninterest income is less predictable, with fee-based revenue potentially declining due to regulatory pressures and economic slowdown.
• Trading divisions are expected to perform well due to increased market volatility.
• Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) advisory and underwriting may face challenges.
• Cost controls will be critical, with a focus on operational efficiency, workforce optimization, and leveraging technology.

Key Industry Insights

Retail Banking

• Retail banks should prioritize customer experience strategies that are data-driven, consistent across channels, and offer personalized support.
• The rise in interest rates will support NII, but banks must also manage risks like housing and auto lending stress, regulatory scrutiny, and data security.
• Modernizing front- and back-office systems to ensure a seamless customer experience is essential.
• ESG initiatives and community-building efforts will be vital to address disparities and build trust with customers.
• Banks should consider integrating digital tools and exploring new financial services like embedded finance and digital assets.

Consumer Payments

• Consumer payment firms face mixed fortunes due to higher interest rates, inflation, and low GDP growth.
• The industry is evolving rapidly with innovations like digital assets and faster payments.
• Payment fintechs may experience consolidation and a shift toward profitable growth.
• Regulatory activity is expected to increase, particularly in consumer protection and digital assets, with a focus on clear and consistent standards.

Wealth Management

• Wealth management is expected to benefit from the shift toward more personalized financial services and ESG-driven strategies.
• The industry will need to innovate and create new value beyond traditional product boundaries.

Commercial Banking

• Commercial banks should leverage insights and digital tools to design new service models.
• They should focus on enhancing customer relationships and adapting to changing market conditions.

Transaction Banking

• Transaction banking will play a key role in shaping the future of global money flows.
• Banks must adapt to new technologies and regulatory frameworks to maintain relevance.

Investment Banking

• Investment banking will face challenges due to lower M&A activity and underwriting pressures.
• However, the industry should remain resilient and innovative in the face of macroeconomic headwinds.

Market Infrastructure

• Market infrastructure providers need to differentiate themselves by creating new value sources.
• They should explore opportunities in digital assets, tokenization, and other emerging technologies.

Strategic Recommendations

• Reassess traditional boundaries to create new value sources through embedded finance, digital identity, and green finance.
• Focus on customer experience by aligning front- and back-office systems and offering consistent, personalized services across multiple channels.
• Adopt continuous risk monitoring to manage new financial technologies and evolving regulatory expectations.
• Invest in technology and automation to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency.
• Embrace ESG and sustainability as key differentiators and drivers of long-term growth.
• Explore new business models such as embedded finance and digital asset integration to stay ahead of the curve.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for banks to be proactive, innovative, and customer-focused in the face of a complex and uncertain global economic landscape. By leveraging technology, adapting to regulatory changes, and rethinking traditional models, banks can position themselves for long-term success in the new economic order.