20211028-招银国际-中国平安-02318.HK-Slower_3Q21_momentum_6页_807kb

报告摘要

CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary

Core Content

Ping An (2318 HK) reported slower 3Q21 performance, with a 33.5% YoY decline in new business value (VNB) and a 17.8% YoY decline in 9M21. The VNB margin on a FYP basis dropped by 5ppt YoY to 30.7% in 9M21, driven by reduced contribution from high-margin critical illness business and assumption changes from the end of FY20. Management revised VNB growth guidance for FY21E to a double-digit decline, reflecting ongoing agent headcount reductions (-31% in 9M21) and a challenging market environment.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

GWP (RMB mn): 795,064 (FY19A), 797,880 (FY20A), 754,958 (FY21E), 752,311 (FY22E), 759,812 (FY23E)
YoY Growth (%): 10.5 (FY19A), 0.4 (FY20A), -5.4 (FY21E), -0.4 (FY22E), +1.0 (FY23E)
Net Profit (RMB mn): 149,407 (FY19A), 143,099 (FY20A), 125,262 (FY21E), 145,991 (FY22E), 153,812 (FY23E)
EPS (RMB): 8.4 (FY19A), 8.1 (FY20A), 6.9 (FY21E), 8.0 (FY22E), 8.4 (FY23E)
YoY Growth (%): 39.6 (FY19A), -3.7 (FY20A), -15.4 (FY21E), +16.5 (FY22E), +5.4 (FY23E)
Consensus EPS (RMB): N.A. (FY19A), 8.1 (FY20A), 7.0 (FY21E), 8.6 (FY22E), 9.6 (FY23E)
P/E (x): 5.8 (FY19A), 6.0 (FY20A), 7.1 (FY21E), 6.1 (FY22E), 5.8 (FY23E)
P/B (x): 1.3 (FY19A), 1.2 (FY20A), 1.0 (FY21E), 0.9 (FY22E), 0.9 (FY23E)
P/EV (x): 0.7 (FY19A), 0.7 (FY20A), 0.6 (FY21E), 0.5 (FY22E), 0.5 (FY23E)
Yield (%): 4.3 (FY19A), 4.7 (FY20A), 4.9 (FY21E), 5.8 (FY22E), 6.1 (FY23E)
ROE (%): 20.8 (FY19A), 17.8 (FY20A), 14.1 (FY21E), 14.8 (FY22E), 14.8 (FY23E)

VNB and OPAT Performance

VNB (3Q21): 33.5% YoY decline, 9M21: -17.8% YoY
OPAT (9M21): 9.2% YoY growth, 3Q21: 7.3% YoY growth
Net Profit (9M21): RMB82bn, tracking 65% of FY21E market consensus

Agent Headcount and Productivity

Agent headcount dropped to 0.71mn in 3Q21, down 20% QoQ and 33% YoY
Agent productivity on FYP basis increased by 5% YoY to 11,409

Digital Agency Channel

Digital agency channel reform is progressing well
Pilot projects are expected to be expanded nationwide before end of FY22

Real Estate Exposure

Insurance investment exposure to real estate rose to 5.5% in 3Q21
No major impairment reported in 3Q21

Outlook and Recommendations

VNB Momentum: Expected to turn around in 2Q22 due to the Jumpstart pre-sale and improved market conditions
Valuation: Ping An is trading at 0.5x P/EV FY22E or 0.9x P/BV FY22E
Target Price: HK$95.07 (previous: HK$97.82)
Recommendation: Maintain BUY, with upside potential of +62.8% from current price (HK$58.40)

Sector Overview

China Insurance Sector: Ping An's performance is in line with broader sector trends, with challenges in life insurance and positive developments in property & casualty insurance

Share Performance

1-mth: +8.7%
3-mth: -7.9%
6-mth: -29.8%
52w High/Low: 103.6 / 48.8

Shareholding Structure

Charoen Pokphand Group: 7.85%
Shenzhen Investment Holdings: 5.27%

Key Ratios

Net Investment Yield: 5.1% (FY19A), 5.3% (FY20A), 5.0% (FY21E), 5.2% (FY22E), 5.2% (FY23E)
Total Investment Yield: 6.7% (FY19A), 6.5% (FY20A), 4.6% (FY21E), 5.2% (FY22E), 5.2% (FY23E)
ROAE: 24.3% (FY19A), 19.9% (FY20A), 15.6% (FY21E), 16.4% (FY22E), 15.6% (FY23E)
ROAA: 1.9% (FY19A), 1.6% (FY20A), 1.3% (FY21E), 1.3% (FY22E), 1.3% (FY23E)
EV Growth: 19.8% (FY19A), 10.6% (FY20A), 8.5% (FY21E), 11.9% (FY22E), 12.1% (FY23E)
ROEV: 18.0% (FY19A), 10.1% (FY20A), 8.2% (FY21E), 11.3% (FY22E), 11.4% (FY23E)

Bank Performance

Net Profit Growth: 32.5% YoY in 3Q21
NIM: 2.75% in 3Q21, down 7bps YoY
NPL Ratio: 1.05% in 3Q21, improved by 3bps QoQ
Capital Adequacy Ratio: 12.55% in 9M21

Technology Business

OPAT Decline: 2.4% YoY in 3Q21
Net Loss: RMB3.5bn due to non-operating loss from Lufax convertible bonds

Analyst Recommendation

CMBIS Rating: BUY
Target Price: HK$95.07
Upside: +62.8% from current price

Disclaimer

The report contains forward-looking statements and is based on available data
No individual investment advice is provided
Investors should consult with financial advisors before making decisions
CMBIS is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. or Singapore
The report is intended for specific recipients and may not be distributed without consent

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