20240327-招银国际-中国平安-02318.HK-Resilient_DPS_despite_OPAT_decline__EV_assumptions_change_cut_VNB_more_than_expected_8页_1mb

Ping An Group's FY23 results showed a significant decline in OPAT, falling 19.7% to RMB 118 billion due to a net loss of RMB 20.7 billion in asset management, while L&H VNB increased 36.2% year-on-year to RMB 39.3 billion but dropped to RMB 31.1 billion after economic assumptions changes, which lowered long-term investment return to 4.5% and risk discount rate to 9.5%, impacting EV negatively. The analysis downgrades FY24-26 EPS forecasts to RMB 6.94 / RMB 7.87 / RMB 8.62, revalues the stock based on SOTP using a blend of RoEV, P/B, and target P/B multiples, and maintains a BUY rating with a new target price of HK$52.0, up 57.6% from current price. Key factors include stable VNB margin despite regulatory pressures and potential reliance on investment growth for future OPAT.