20221027-招银国际-中国平安-02318.HK-3Q22_results_in_line_6页_1mb
报告摘要
Ping An (2318 HK) Summary
Core Content
Ping An Group reported its 3Q22 results, indicating that the company's operating profit after tax (OPAT) grew by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB123bn in the first nine months of 2022, translating into a 2.8% YoY growth in 3Q22. The results suggest a stabilization in performance, with the life insurance segment showing consistent growth at 15% YoY and the property and casualty (P&C) insurance segment experiencing a decline of 17% YoY primarily due to lower investment returns.
Ping An Bank continued to show strong profit growth at 26% YoY in 3Q22, with the net interest margin (NIM) increasing slightly to 2.77%. The bank's asset quality and capital position remained stable. The asset management segment turned positive in 3Q22, with OPAT rising from RMB6bn losses in 3Q21, while the technology segment was negatively impacted by RMB1.5bn revaluation losses from Lufax CB, as its share price fell 58% in the quarter.
The company's core solvency margins for both life and P&C segments improved quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), despite investment volatility. The insurance investment exposure to the real estate sector decreased to 4.8% at the end of 3Q22 from 5.2% at the end of 1H22. Ping An plans to launch the 2023 jumpstart pre-sale in mid-November 2022, with expectations that enhanced agency productivity and rising demand for savings products will support the sales.
Key Financial Highlights
Earnings Summary (RMB mn)
| Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Profit | 143,099 | 101,618 | 100,652 | 128,729 | 147,605 |
| EPS (Reported) | 8.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.1 |
| YoY growth (%) | -3.7 | -29.0 | -4.2 | 27.9 | 14.7 |
| Consensus EPS | n.a | 5.8 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 9.0 |
| VNB/share | 2.71 | 2.07 | 1.61 | 1.85 | 2.05 |
| Group embedded value/share | 72.7 | 76.3 | 82.0 | 91.4 | 101.7 |
| Combined ratio (%) | 99.1 | 98.0 | 98.0 | 98.0 | 98.0 |
| P/B (x) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| P/Embedded value (x) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 10.6 |
| ROE (%) | 19.9 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 14.1 | 14.8 |
3Q22 Results at a Glance (RMBmn)
| Metric | 9M21 | 9M22 | YoY change | 3Q21 | 3Q22 | YoY change | 1H21 | 1H22 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit to shareholders | 81,638 | 76,463 | -6.3% | 23,633 | 16,190 | -31.5% | 58,005 | 60,273 | 3.9% |
| OPAT to shareholders | 118,737 | 123,287 | 3.8% | 36,901 | 37,947 | 2.8% | 81,836 | 85,340 | 4.3% |
| Life insurance | 72,701 | 85,056 | 17.0% | 23,206 | 26,658 | 14.9% | 49,495 | 58,398 | 18.0% |
| P&C insurance | 13,221 | 10,405 | -21.3% | 2,480 | 2,062 | -16.9% | 10,741 | 8,343 | -22.3% |
| Bank | 16,887 | 21,247 | 25.8% | 6,696 | 8,445 | 26.1% | 10,191 | 12,802 | 25.6% |
| Asset Management | 1,869 | 5,582 | 198.7% | -6,139 | 1,182 | -119.3% | 8,008 | 4,400 | -45.1% |
| Technology | 7,437 | 5,656 | -23.9% | 1,201 | 747 | -37.8% | 6,236 | 4,909 | -21.3% |
Main Points
- Stable Performance: Ping An's OPAT grew by 3.8% YoY in 9M22, with a 2.8% YoY growth in 3Q22.
- Life Insurance: Maintained a stable YoY growth of 15%, with the VNB decline marginally narrowed.
- P&C Insurance: Declined 17% YoY due to lower investment returns, but combined ratio improved slightly.
- Ping An Bank: Profit growth remained strong at 26% YoY, with NIM increasing slightly and asset quality and capital stable.
- Asset Management: Turned positive in 3Q22, reversing losses from the previous quarter.
- Technology Segment: Suffered from revaluation losses due to Lufax CB's share price drop.
- Management Changes: Mr. Yao Bo remains as co-CEO, while Ms. Zhang Zhichun takes over as CFO. The management stability is expected to remain intact.
- Agency Performance: Life insurance agency scale declined due to pandemic impacts, but agent productivity rose over 22% YoY. High-quality new recruits (Talent+ agents) increased by 120% YoY, accounting for 20% of total new agents.
- Valuation: Ping An-H is trading at 0.3x P/EV FY23E and 0.6x P/BV FY23E, indicating a historical low valuation. The company is expected to recover with new business growth.
- Investment Exposure: Insurance investment in real estate decreased to 4.8% at end-3Q22.
- Share Performance: The stock has seen a 125.5% upside potential with a target price of HK$75.55.
Analyst Recommendations
- Rating: BUY (Maintain)
- Target Price: HK$75.55
- Current Price: HK$33.50
- Valuation: Historical trough with potential for recovery.
Key Risks and Disclosures
- The report contains important disclosures and disclaimers, including the fact that the information is not suitable for all investors and may not be accurate or complete.
- The analyst certifies that the views expressed are personal and not influenced by compensation.
- CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
- The report is intended for distribution to major U.S. institutional investors and is not for general public use.
- The report may contain conflicts of interest due to CMBIGM's potential investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned.
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