美中贸易委员会-第一阶段贸易协定成员调查：第二轮（英文）-2020.5-6页_952kb

Phase One Trade Agreement: USCBC Member Survey Summary (Round Two, May 2020)

Core Content

The Phase One Trade Agreement between the United States and China, signed in January 2020, has seen partial implementation four months later. The United States-China Business Council (USCBC) conducted a follow-up survey in May 2020 to assess the impact of the agreement and the effects of the global COVID-19 crisis on trade relations.

Main Findings

• Implementation Progress: China has fulfilled several commitments, including agriculture policy liberalization, intellectual property (IP) policy reforms, and increased foreign access to financial markets. However, some commitments, such as the delivery of the IP action plan, were delayed but eventually fulfilled.

• Sentiment Toward the Agreement:

  • Positive Outlook: 64% of respondents expressed a positive or somewhat positive view of the agreement.
  • Neutral Sentiment: A significant increase in neutral responses, attributed to uncertainty around the implementation and the ongoing effects of the pandemic.
  • Negative Outlook: Only 4% of respondents had a negative view of the agreement.

• Reasons for Positive Sentiment:

  • Bilateral trade stability and prevention of further tariff escalation.
  • Implementation addressing specific challenges faced by companies in the China market.
  • Confidence in the implementation of future commitments.

• Reasons for Neutral Sentiment:

  • Concerns about the faithful implementation of the agreement.
  • Perceived uncertainty in the business environment due to the pandemic.
  • Some respondents feel the agreement does not directly impact their operations.

Impact of COVID-19

• Disruptions: A large portion of respondents believe that the disruptions caused by the pandemic will negatively affect their ability to capitalize on new business opportunities from Phase One.
• Uncertainty: Roughly one third of companies are unsure of the impact, while 9% think the pandemic could actually help them benefit from the agreement.
• Supply Chain Issues: The crisis has caused significant supply chain disruptions, affecting the ability of companies to benefit from the trade deal.

Section 301 Tariffs

• Initial Uncertainty: In February 2020, most respondents were unsure whether the benefits of the trade agreement outweighed the costs of Section 301 tariffs.
• Shifting Perspective: By May 2020, a majority of respondents felt that the costs of the tariffs outweighed the benefits.
• Decreased Confidence: The proportion of respondents who believed Section 301 actions were worth the cost dropped by nearly half.

Tariff Exclusions

• Agricultural Commitments: China has implemented tariff exclusions for a number of US products to fulfill its commitment to purchase $200 billion in goods and services over two years.
• Exclusion Rates:
  • 80% of companies affected by retaliatory tariffs have received some level of exclusion.
  • 20% of companies have not received exclusions or are unsure.
  • 34% of all respondents say their products are unaffected by Chinese retaliatory tariffs.

Dispute Resolution Mechanism

• Uncertainty: A plurality of respondents remain uncertain about using the dispute resolution mechanism outlined in the agreement.
• Usage Intentions:
  • About 20% of respondents indicate their company is likely to use the mechanism.
  • 38% of respondents say their company is unlikely to use it.
  • Companies that plan to use the mechanism tend to rely on trade associations or view it as a last resort.

Key Industry Insights

• The survey includes responses from 38 USCBC member companies across various industries, indicating a broad range of perspectives and experiences with the Phase One agreement.
• The agreement's impact on business opportunities is still under evaluation, particularly in the context of the ongoing global health crisis.

Conclusion

The Phase One Trade Agreement has made progress in its implementation, with China fulfilling several key commitments. However, the uncertainty surrounding its full execution and the disruptions caused by the pandemic have led to a shift in sentiment among US companies. While many remain optimistic about the agreement's potential, a growing number are neutral or uncertain, highlighting the challenges in leveraging the dispute resolution mechanism and the ongoing impact of the Section 301 tariffs.