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US Economics Summary: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations as of June 2025. The report highlights recent shifts in consumer sentiment and inflation outlook, while also including important disclosures related to the research and its implications for investors.

Key Findings

• Consumer Sentiment Index:

  • The index increased to 60.5 in June, surpassing both the consensus expectation of 53.6 and the analyst's expectation of 56.9.
  • The majority of the improvement was driven by the expectations index, which rose to 58.4 from 47.9.
  • The current conditions index also improved to 63.7 from 58.9.

• Inflation Expectations:

  • 1-year inflation expectations dropped sharply to 5.1%, below the previous 6.6% and the analyst's expectation of 6.1%.
  • 5-10 year inflation expectations edged modestly lower to 4.1% from 4.2%, aligning with expectations.

• Consumer Spending Outlook:

  • Despite the improvement in sentiment, the report notes that consumer survey measures have not correlated well with actual consumer spending data.
  • Therefore, it is not expected that there will be a significant pickup in consumer spending following the improved sentiment readings.

• Volatility and Partisan Divide:

  • The inflation expectations data has shown high volatility.
  • There is a meaningful partisan divide in the data, indicating that responses vary significantly based on political affiliation.
  • The share of respondents giving more extreme answers has increased, which may affect the reliability of the data.

• Fed and Citi Perspective:

  • Both the Fed and Citi are cautious about interpreting the sharp drop in 1-year inflation expectations due to volatility.
  • The longer-term inflation expectations are well-anchored, which provides comfort to the Fed that tariff-related inflation is unlikely to persist.

Citi's View

• The improvement in consumer sentiment may be partially attributed to reduced trade tensions and lower economic weakening risks.
• Equity prices have also been positively impacted by the reduction in tariffs.
• The report emphasizes that consumer sentiment does not necessarily translate into consumer spending.

Important Disclosures

• The research analysts responsible for the report are either marked as "AC" in the author block or bolded alongside content they are responsible for.

• Analysts' compensation is based on activities and services that benefit investor clients, not directly on specific recommendations.

• The Firm may act as a liquidity provider or principal trader in financial instruments referenced.

• Recommendations are not guaranteed and should be considered alongside public information and registered prospectuses.

• Investment risks are highlighted, including the possibility of losing principal and market volatility.

• Legal and Regulatory Compliance:

  • The report is subject to various legal and regulatory requirements, including those from European, Israeli, Turkish, Australian, Brazilian, Chilean, German, Hong Kong, Indian, Indonesian, Japanese, Saudi Arabian, Korean, and Malaysian authorities.
  • Conflicts of interest are acknowledged, and the Firm has organizational arrangements to manage them.

• Investor Advisory:

  • Investors should consult legal counsel regarding compliance with economic sanctions and investment regulations.
  • Past performance is not indicative of future results, and forecasts are not guarantees.

• Product Disclaimer:

  • The Product is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
  • Investors are advised to read all related documents before making any investment decisions.

Summary

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows a notable recovery in June, with an increase to 60.5, indicating some improvement in consumer confidence. However, the report cautions that consumer spending may not follow suit due to the weak correlation between sentiment and actual spending data. Inflation expectations, particularly for the next year, have dropped significantly to 5.1%, while longer-term expectations remain well-anchored. The report highlights volatility and a partisan divide in the data, urging caution in interpretation. Citi analysts suggest that the reduction in trade tariffs may have contributed to the sentiment improvement and equity market gains.

Important legal and regulatory disclosures are provided, emphasizing compliance, conflict of interest management, and investment risks. The report is intended for professional investors and is not suitable for retail clients in certain jurisdictions. Investors are advised to seek independent legal and financial advice before making any decisions based on the content.