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Citi Research - Key Analysis Summary (June 12, 2025)

Global Economics

• Tariff Effects: Global trade activity slowed as imports fell sharply in April, signaling tariffs' restraining impact. Export orders in manufacturing PMIs continue to contract across major economies.

US Economics

• Fed Policy: Core inflation is softer than expected, supporting further rate cuts (now penciled in by Sep). Employment data released in May suggests wage growth easing, but the labor market remains resilient.

US and G10 Rates

• US 10Y Treasury Yields: Possible rally above 4% amid fiscal strains. Steeper yield curve outlook favors 5s30s spread trades.
• G10 FX: Bearish USD outlook due to Fed policy normalization and lower growth forecasts.

Credit Strategy

• US Corporate Debt: YoY fundamentals improved (higher EBITDA, revenue growth, debt stability) despite trade disruptions, signaling resilience.

Commodities

• Oil: Price correction expected on surplus fundamentals. Nuclear tensions may cause short-term spikes.
• Gold: Bull run may end in Q3 as 2026 growth outlook improves, reducing hedge demand.

Equity Strategies

• US Equities: S&P 500 target lifted to 6300 on stronger earnings projections, emphasizing growth stocks and AI-led themes.
• European Equities: European tech may underperform US-led growth but not always, driven by cyclical factors.

European & Global Macro

• ECB & Consumer Prices: Consumer inflation data leads growth fundamentals in market focus. Japan’s labor shortages normalize slower compared to the US.

Digital Assets

• Stablecoins: Driving demand for short-term US Treasuries, with USD dominance expected to persist.

Disclaimer: Analyst certifications and conflict disclosures underscore firm service relationships with named companies and potential research biases.