2025-06-10-花旗集团-美国经济_每日更新-纽约联储通胀预期下降_13页_294kb

报告摘要

NY Fed Inflation Expectations Decline: At all horizons, the NY Fed's inflation expectations have fallen to levels approaching the low points seen early in 2024, contributing to easing concerns among Fed officials.
Contrast with University of Michigan Data: Despite this decline, the University of Michigan survey-based inflation expectations remain elevated, with one-year ahead expectations leaping to 6.6% and five-year-ahead expectations reaching 4.2%.
Citi Projections: The report projects a 0.248% MoM increase in core CPI, which implies a close-to-target 0.21% MoM increase in core PCE inflation. This is viewed as positive data, especially given the potential easing pressure from reduced large tariffs on China.
Fed Policy Outlook: Fed officials are cited as being "patient," while acknowledging persistent inflation risks. Some comments suggest that the progress on disinflation may be interrupted by tariffs.
Market Sentiment: Markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2025 and 2026.

US-China Trade Negotiations: Ongoing discussions in London aiming to reach an agreement where China agrees to increase rare earth exports in return for the US relaxing export controls.
Federal Funds Market Pricing: Markets are looking for between two and four 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2025 and pricing for sub-3.5% Fed funds by the end of 2026.
Financial Conditions: The Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index remains within its recent range, while the yield curve steepness between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury remains relatively stable.

Inflation data, particularly core CPI and core PCE, are expected to show that the economy is returning to approximately target inflation, barring specific external pressures like remaining tariffs.

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