2025-06-12-花旗集团-加拿大经济周刊_距离7月加拿大央行会议还有很长时间_16页_378kb

Key Views on BoC Interest Rate Cuts: Expected to resume rate cuts at the July BoC meeting, aiming for 100bp reductions. Easing risks to inflation have fallen due to softer demand, slowing inflation, and a weakening labor market. Citi anticipates cuts resuming in July.

Economic Data Highlights: April GDP growth is expected to be lower than the preliminary estimate (0.1%). Manufacturing sales fell 2.8% MoM, while wholesale sales decreased 2.3%. Rising unemployment rate to 7.0% and declining exports are key concerns.

** implications for Inflation**: Weaker demand and downward pressure on inflation, as seen in falling home prices and softening consumer spending. Retail sales are projected to decline, reflecting consumer caution amid economic uncertainty.

Housing Market: Home sales continue to decline consistently, with prices falling. The ratio of sales to new listings indicates further slowing in home prices, contributing to downward pressure on CPI.

Upcoming Data and Events: Key releases include CFIB Business Barometer, Retail Sales, and comments from BoC officials. Market expectations may shift based on developments in Canada and the US before the July BoC decision.

Monetary Policy Outlook: Citi's policy rate projection shows a gradual decline over the next year, with the market pricing in further cuts by late 2025. Economic conditions suggest potential for additional reductions if inflation remains controlled.