20170804-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 04 August 2017

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of key financial updates, stock recommendations, and corporate events for various markets in Asia, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It also includes detailed financial data for Cheung Kong Property Holdings (1113 HK) and Brilliance Auto (1114 HK), with insights into their performance, future outlook, and valuation.

Key Stories and Updates

China

Cheung Kong Property Holdings (1113 HK):
- 1H17 Results: Performance in line with expectations, with a 67.4% year-over-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders. The growth was driven by higher property sales in China, revaluation gains from prime office buildings in Central, and contributions from non-property business.
- Valuation: Maintained BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$70.28, representing a 30% discount to NAV of HK$100.40/share.
- Outlook: Management expects continued growth in China property sales in 2H17, driven by strong demand and policy stability. The company is focusing on margin improvement as part of its diversification strategy.
Brilliance Auto (1114 HK):
- Upgrade to BUY: Due to stronger-than-expected sales of the new 5-series and improved margins from the new engine plant.
- Performance: Expected EPS growth of 8%, 26%, and 32% for 2017–2019. The new 5-series has seen a strong market response with a waiting list of three months.
- New SUV Models: X1 sales increased significantly, and the new X3 is expected to launch in 1H18, contributing to further growth.
- Valuation: Target price raised to HK$28.00 from HK$15.00, with an upside of +46.9%.

Indonesia

Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ):
- Downgraded to HOLD due to intensifying competition in the dairy and snacks sectors.

Malaysia

F&N Holdings (FNH MK):
- 3QFY17 results slightly below expectations. Core EBIT declined by 45.7% yoy, and EBIT for the quarter was down 2.4% yoy.
Oil & Gas Sector:
- Petronas is diversifying as long-term LNG contracts to Japan are set to expire in 2018, and it cannot remain a global LNG producer reliant solely on such contracts.

Singapore

CapitaLand (CAPL SP):
- Recommended as BUY with a target price of S$4.30, showing "prudent aggression" in 2Q17.
Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP):
- Recommended as BUY with a target price of S$3.57. Core utilities earnings are expected to see sustainable improvement in 2Q17, aside from India.

Thailand

IRPC (IRPC TB):
- 2Q17 earnings continue to improve.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	22026.1	0.0	1.1	2.5	11.5
S&P 500	2472.2	-0.2	-0.1	1.8	10.4
FTSE 100	7474.8	0.9	0.4	1.6	4.6
AS30	5786.8	-0.1	-0.8	-0.6	1.2
CSI 300	3727.8	-0.9	0.4	3.0	12.6
FSSTI	3342.9	-0.2	-0.4	4.1	16.0
HSCEI	11002.2	-0.5	1.3	6.8	17.1
HSI	27531.0	-0.3	1.5	8.4	25.1
JCI	5780.6	-0.7	-0.7	-1.4	9.1
KLCI	1771.9	0.1	0.1	0.6	7.9
KOSPI	2386.9	-1.7	-2.3	0.3	17.8
Nikkei 225	20029.3	-0.3	-0.3	0.0	4.8
SET	1578.3	-0.1	-0.3	0.3	2.3
TWSE	10469.9	-0.5	-0.4	1.2	13.1
BDI	993	2.9	5.4	12.6	3.3
CPO (RM/mt)	2624	-1.1	0.2	0.9	-18.0
Brent Crude	52	-0.7	1.0	4.7	-8.5

Top Picks

BUY

Alibaba (BABA US): Potential upside of +12.8%
Beijing Ent. Water (371 HK): Potential upside of +15.3%
Ace Hardware (ACES IJ): Potential upside of +18.2%
Waskita Kaya (WSKT IJ): Potential upside of +46.3%
Ekovest (EKO MK): Potential upside of +38.4%
OCBC (OCBC SP): Potential upside of +18.2%
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Potential upside of +20.5%

SELL

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Potential downside of -38.5%
Sapura Energy (SAPE MK): Potential downside of -9.8%

Corporate Events

Luncheon with Singapore Post: 4 Aug, Singapore
Roadshow with China Display: 7 Aug, Hong Kong
Analyst Marketing on Chinese and Singapore Banking: 14 Aug, Brunei
Analyst Marketing on Singapore Small & Mid Caps: 14–15 Aug, Malaysia
Analyst Marketing on Greater China Strategy: 14–17 Aug, Brunei, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur
Analyst Presentation on Malaysia Technology Sector: 22–23 Aug, Taipei
Roadshow with China TCM Hldgs: 24–28 Aug, Hong Kong, Shanghai
Roadshow with Globetronics Technology: 24–25 Aug, Taipei
Roadshow with Meidong Auto Holdings: 25–28 Aug, Hong Kong
Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation: 5–12 Sep, US/Canada
Roadshow with Health Management Int'l: 6 Sep, Kuala Lumpur
Roadshow with Singapore Technologies Engineering: 9–11 Oct, Canada
Asian Gems Conference 2017: 10–11 Oct, Singapore

Company Financials (Cheung Kong Property Holdings)

1H17 Results

Turnover: HK$29,863m (+8.3% yoy)
Core Net Profit: HK$9,480m (+13.7% yoy)
Profit Attributable to Shareholders: HK$14,410m (+67.4% yoy)
EPS: HK$3.82 (+71.3% yoy)

Key Financials

Metric	2015	2016	2017F	2018F	2019F
Net Turnover (HK$m)	57,280	69,300	61,937	65,782	68,271
EBITDA (HK$m)	20,522	24,921	26,528	27,793	28,146
Net Profit (rep./act.) (HK$m)	17,113	20,927	19,029	19,982	20,190
EPS (HK$)	444.5	549.1	499.3	524.3	529.8
PE (x)	14.6	11.8	13.0	12.4	12.3
P/B (x)	1.0	0.9	0.9	0.8	0.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	12.5	10.3	9.7	9.2	9.1
Net Margin (%)	29.9	30.2	30.7	30.4	29.6
Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%)	2.8	3.5	4.4	5.8	-

Valuation

NAV per Share (HK$): 100.4
Discount to NAV: 30%
Target Price: HK$70.28
Share Price: HK$65.00
Upside: +8.1%

Company Financials (Brilliance Auto)

1H17 Results

Net Turnover (Rmbm): 5,535
EBITDA (Rmbm): -660
Operating Profit (Rmbm): -850
Net Profit (rep./act.): 5,880
EPS (fen): 117.0
PE (x): 14.2
P/B (x): 3.3
Dividend Yield (%): 1.0

Key Financials

Metric	2015	2016	2017F	2018F	2019F
Net Turnover (Rmbm)	4,863	5,125	5,535	5,978	6,456
EBITDA (Rmbm)	-470	-551	-660	-464	-268
Operating Profit (Rmbm)	-652	-741	-850	-654	-458
Net Profit (rep./act.) (Rmbm)	3,495	3,682	5,880	8,220	10,380
EPS (fen)	69.5	73.3	117.0	163.5	206.5
Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%)	7.5	3.8	0.1	-1.2	-1.3
Interest Cover (x)	-	-	5.8	3.0	1.6
ROE (%)	19.0	17.1	22.9	25.9	26.0

Valuation

Target Price: HK$28.00 (upgraded from HK$15.00)
Upside: +46.9%
Share Price: HK$19.06
Market Cap (HK$m): 95,791
Shares Issued (m): 5,026
Major Shareholder: Huachen (55.38%)

Key Insights and Catalysts

Cheung Kong Property Holdings:
- Interim dividend of HK$0.42/share (+11% yoy)
- Strong performance in China and Hong Kong
- Management is focused on margins and diversification
- Valuation at 30% discount to NAV
Brilliance Auto:
- Stronger-than-expected sales of the new 5-series
- New engine plant improving margins and operating efficiency
- Expected EPS growth for 2017–2019
- Strategic move to form JV with Renault for mini-van business