2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malawi_First_Review_Under_the_Three_123页_2mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 18/336: Malawi

Core Content

This report outlines the results of the first review under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Malawi, which was approved in April 2018 for SDR78.075 million (about US$108.2 million). The review, conducted in September–October 2018, concluded with the approval of a US$15.4 million disbursement, enabling Malawi to draw SDR11.15 million. The report also includes a statement by the Executive Director and a Staff Report evaluating Malawi's economic performance and policy implementation under the ECF arrangement.

Main Points

• Economic Performance: Malawi's economic growth declined slightly in 2018, from 4.0 percent in 2017 to 3.2 percent. The primary fiscal balance missed the target by 0.9 percent of GDP due to expenditure overruns, mainly from increased spending for safe elections and additional maize purchases. The non-accumulation of external payment arrears was observed, while the continuous QPC on new non-concessional external debt was missed by about 2 percent of GDP.
• Program Objectives: The ECF-supported program aims to entrench macroeconomic stability and foster higher, more inclusive, and resilient growth. It includes measures to improve governance, transparency, and public financial management.
• Policy Implementation: Most quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) were met, with significant overperformance in international reserves and the reduction of RBM holdings of government securities. However, the program missed two key QPCs, prompting requests for waivers and modifications.
• Fiscal Adjustments: The FY 2018/19 budget was tightened to correct for previous spending overruns and postponed budget support. Non-priority spending items, such as external travel and non-essential maintenance, are being reduced to preserve fiscal space.
• Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) maintained a tight monetary policy to contain inflation, keeping the policy rate at 16 percent. The nominal exchange rate has remained stable against the U.S. dollar, but greater flexibility is needed to buffer against external shocks.
• Banking Sector: The banking system has improved in terms of capitalization and profitability. Non-performing loans (NPLs) declined from 15.7 percent in 2017 to 9.3 percent in 2018. The RBM conducted a stress test in June 2018, highlighting the need for continued vigilance.
• Donor Constraints: Donor funding for the budget remains constrained due to governance concerns following the 2013 cashgate scandal. Most donors support off-budget projects, limiting the government's fiscal space and ability to meet the SDGs.
• Economic Outlook: The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with growth expected to rebound to 4.0 percent in 2019. Over the medium term, growth could reach 6.5 percent if infrastructure, electricity, and irrigation improvements are realized. Inflation is projected to moderate to 8.9 percent in 2019 and around 5 percent over the medium term.
• Key Risks: Risks include political pressures during the 2019 elections, governance challenges, adverse weather, and worsened terms of trade. Tighter global financial conditions and weak global growth could also dampen export performance and donor financing.

Key Information

Program Performance

• Most QPCs were met, with significant overperformance in international reserves and RBM holdings of government securities.
• The primary fiscal balance missed the target by 0.9 percent of GDP due to expenditure overruns.
• The continuous QPC on new non-concessional external debt was missed by about 2 percent of GDP.
• The indicative target on domestic arrears was missed by about MK1 billion, but this is expected to be resolved through phased reconciliation.

Fiscal Adjustments

• The FY 2018/19 primary deficit (excluding budget support and dedicated grants) is reduced by 1.1 percent of GDP.
• Non-priority spending is being cut to preserve fiscal space, including external travel and maintenance.
• Donor flow accuracy is being improved through enhanced aid management platforms and joint portfolio reviews.

Monetary Policy

• The RBM has maintained a tight monetary policy, keeping the policy rate at 16 percent.
• Inflation is expected to moderate to 8.9 percent in 2019 and around 5 percent over the medium term.
• The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 7.5 percent of GDP by 2019.

Structural Reforms

• Governance reforms are being advanced, including public financial management improvements, debt management, and oversight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• The RBM has developed a monetary policy communication strategy.
• Bank account reconciliation is being automated starting from FY 2019/20.
• Forensic audit for FY 2013/14–14/15 is complete, with the report to be used for criminal investigations.

Economic Outlook

• Growth is expected to rebound to 4.0 percent in 2019 and reach 6.5 percent over the medium term.
• Inflation is projected to remain in single digits.
• International reserves are expected to rise to around 4.5 months of prospective imports.

Risks

• Political pressures during the 2019 elections could weaken policy implementation.
• Governance challenges and donor constraints may delay progress.
• Adverse weather, infestations, and terms of trade deterioration could impact growth and inflation.
• Global financial conditions and weak growth could depress exports and donor financing.

Key Documents

• Press Release: Announced the completion of the first review and the disbursement of US$15.4 million.
• Staff Report: Analyzed Malawi's economic developments, performance under the ECF arrangement, and policy discussions.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Highlighted the satisfactory performance of the program and encouraged continued reforms.
• Annexes and Appendices: Included a risk assessment matrix, debt sustainability analysis, and various supporting documents like the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Conclusion

The IMF has approved the disbursement of US$15.4 million under the ECF arrangement, acknowledging Malawi's progress in macroeconomic stability and structural reforms. The country is encouraged to continue improving governance, transparency, and financial sector resilience to achieve stronger economic outcomes and meet the Sustainable Development Goals.