2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ukraine_Second_Review_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_and_Requests_for_Waivers_of_Non_151页_2mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 16/319: Ukraine

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with Ukraine, which resulted in the approval of a US$1 billion disbursement under the arrangement. The review also addressed requests for waivers of non-observance of performance criteria and included an ex-post evaluation of the 2014–15 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The report highlights Ukraine's economic recovery, fiscal and structural reforms, and challenges remaining.

Main Views

Economic Recovery and Stabilization

• Ukraine emerged from a severe economic crisis, with real GDP growth expected at 1.5% in 2016.
• Inflation has sharply declined, reaching 7.9% in July 2016, following a peak of 61% in 2015.
• Gross international reserves doubled to over US$14 billion by end-2016.
• Industrial production and agricultural output showed signs of recovery, though the terms of trade shocks and political uncertainty limited the pace of economic rebound.

Fiscal Policy

• The 2015 fiscal adjustment exceeded targets, with a general government deficit of 1.2% of GDP and Naftogaz deficit of less than 1% of GDP.
• The 2016 budget targets a general government deficit of 3.25% of GDP, a moderate expansionary stance given the prior fiscal over-performance.
• The budget includes tax cuts and expenditure consolidation, especially in pension reform and public sector wage adjustments.
• Political tensions and delayed budget approval raised concerns about the implementation of fiscal reforms.

Structural Reforms

• Energy sector reforms were successful, with gas and heating tariffs increased to cost-recovery levels.
• Banking sector reforms continued, with 14 out of 20 largest banks agreeing to capital injections and related-party lending unwinding.
• Privatization and state-owned enterprise (SOE) restructuring are ongoing but progress has been slower than expected due to political resistance.
• Corruption reduction is a key challenge, despite international support and renewed efforts.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has maintained control of monetary policy, reducing the discount rate to 15.5% in July 2016.
• Inflation expectations have trended downward, supporting monetary easing.
• The hryvnia depreciated in late 2015 due to terms of trade shocks, but recovered in early 2016 following rising steel prices.

Program Financing and Risks

• The program financing is expected to be supported by official creditors, with US$3.6 billion disbursed since program approval and an additional US$1.8 billion expected.
• The debt exchange with private bondholders in 2015 helped reduce debt service burden and improve debt sustainability.
• Russia's non-participation in the debt exchange led to arrears and litigation.
• The program's sustainability depends on continued fiscal discipline, faster structural reforms, and debt restructuring.

Key Information

Program Overview

• Extended Fund Facility (EFF): A four-year, SDR 12.348 billion (about US$17.5 billion) program approved in March 2015.
• Second Review: Approved waivers for missed performance criteria and rephasing of access and financing assurances.
• Total Disbursements: Reached SDR 5,444.21 million (about US$7.62 billion) by the time of the second review.

Performance and Outcomes

• Fiscal Adjustment: Achieved significant over-performance in 2015, with general government plus Naftogaz deficit at 2.1% of GDP.
• Banking Sector: 80 banks suspended since 2014, 2 resolved, and capital injections ongoing.
• Reserves: Gross international reserves reached US$14.2 billion in August 2016, surpassing the ARA metric threshold.

Challenges and Risks

• Political instability and uncertainty remain, with the risk of early elections and policy reversals.
• Corruption and inefficient governance are major obstacles to sustainable growth.
• External risks include terms of trade shocks and a weaker global recovery, especially in emerging markets.

Program Monitoring and Next Steps

• The IMF team conducted discussions in Kyiv in 2015 and 2016.
• The new government in April 2016 has reaffirmed its commitment to reforms.
• The policy agenda includes:
  • Strengthening public finances via expenditure consolidation and tax reform.
  • Rehabilitating the banking system.
  • Maintaining prudent monetary policy.
  • Accelerating structural reforms, including SOE restructuring and corruption crackdowns.

Conclusion

The IMF's second review of Ukraine's EFF program confirmed progress in economic stabilization and fiscal adjustment, though structural reforms and political challenges remain critical for sustainable recovery. The approval of US$1 billion and the ex-post evaluation of the SBA underscore the importance of continued reform efforts and international support. The IMF remains committed to assisting Ukraine in its path toward economic resilience and growth.