IMF国际货币组织全球-Republic-of-Madagascar_Fifth-Review-Under-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement_107页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 19/262 for the Republic of Madagascar

Core Content

The Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for the Republic of Madagascar was completed on July 26, 2019, enabling the disbursement of SDR 31.428 million (about US $43.7 million), which brings total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 219.12 million (about US$ 304.5 million). The review was based on the country's performance in 2018 and the first months of 2019, and the favorable outlook for the remainder of the program.

Main Points

1. Program Performance

The authorities met all end-December 2018 performance criteria (PCs), including achieving a domestic primary balance surplus of 0.1% of GDP, despite a temporary revenue shortfall.
The indicative targets (ITs) for 2018 were partially missed, particularly on priority social spending (missed by 0.2% of GDP) and tax revenue (shortfall due to lower domestic tax collection).
End-March 2019 ITs were met except for social spending, which was expected to increase significantly in the remainder of the year.
The end-June 2019 PCs appear achievable, and the sixth review will assess final performance when data is complete.

2. Economic Developments

Growth accelerated in 2018 to 5.2%, the highest since 2008, driven by agricultural recovery and investment.
Inflation decreased to 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December 2018 from a peak of 9% in late 2017.
The external position remained strong, with a current account surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2018, but a small deficit in the first quarter of 2019 due to declining vanilla exports and increased imports.
The real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated by 1% in the first quarter of 2019 after election-related depreciation in 2018.
Monetary policy remained effective, with central bank interventions helping to manage liquidity and stabilize the exchange rate.

3. Fiscal and Structural Reforms

The revised 2019 budget law reflects the new government's priorities and includes additional investment spending.
The net tax-to-GDP ratio target for 2019 is 12.3%, which is ambitious, but customs revenue exceeded expectations, helping to exceed the fiscal target for the first five months of 2019.
Domestically financed public investment is targeted at 8.3% of GDP, but execution remains weak, with only 16% of domestic projects completed in the first quarter of 2019.
The 2019 Revised Budget Law allows for reallocation of additional spending to social ministries, potentially increasing priority social spending to 1.4% of GDP.
Social spending (under a broader definition) could reach 5% of GDP in 2019, with some projects falling under non-social ministries.

4. Key Challenges

Fuel pricing and JIRAMA losses remain central challenges. An automatic fuel pricing mechanism was introduced in September 2019, with a 12% reduction in reference prices and a 4.5% average reduction in pump prices.
JIRAMA (public utility) is working with World Bank support to implement cost-saving measures, including contract renegotiation and bill clearance.
The civil servant pension fund and fiscal risks from JIRAMA liabilities are ongoing concerns.
Corruption reduction and governance reforms are critical for long-term stability and growth.

5. Outlook and Risks

The medium-term outlook is positive, with GDP growth projected above 5% in 2019-20.
Inflation is expected to remain moderate, and the fiscal position is projected to stay robust.
Current account deficits are expected to increase, with a 1.75% deficit in 2019 and rising thereafter.
Debt sustainability is assessed as low risk of external debt distress and moderate risk of total public debt distress.
Risks include lower-than-expected public investment, SOE losses, slower corruption reduction, and external shocks such as terms-of-trade declines and natural disasters.

6. IMF Support and Reforms

The IMF team met with government officials, private sector, civil society, and development partners in Antananarivo during May 29–June 11, 2019.
IMF technical assistance is expected to continue in fiscal policy, governance, and the monetary and financial sectors.
Public financial management reforms and improvements in the business climate are emphasized as essential for good governance and inclusive growth.

Key Information

SDR Disbursement: SDR 31.428 million (about US$43.7 million) under the fifth review.
Total SDR Disbursements: SDR 219.12 million (about US$304.5 million) under the ECF arrangement.
Quota Utilization: The arrangement includes 90% of Madagascar’s quota and 12.5% additional access.
Program Objectives: Support macroeconomic stability, sustained and inclusive growth, and debt sustainability.
Next Review: The sixth review will take place after end-June 2019, when final performance data will be available.

Conclusion

Madagascar has made significant progress in its IMF-supported program, with strong macroeconomic performance and improved fiscal discipline. While challenges remain, particularly in public investment execution and debt management, the program remains on track. Continued IMF support, structural reforms, and policy implementation will be crucial for achieving long-term stability and growth.