2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Niger_First_Review_under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_61页_1mb

Niger: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement

Core Content

The IMF conducted the first review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Niger, which was approved by the Executive Board on December 15, 2017. The review concluded that the program implementation was broadly satisfactory, with all performance criteria and all but one indicative target met. The staff appraisal was endorsed, leading to a disbursement of SDR 14.1 million.

Main Tenets of the ECF Program

The ECF-supported program is centered around the following main objectives:

• Preserving Macroeconomic Stability: Through prudent fiscal and debt policies.
• Broadening the Revenue Base: Enhancing tax collection and revenue generation.
• Prioritizing Public Spending and Improving Expenditure Control: Ensuring efficient use of public funds.
• Diversifying the Economy and Confronting the Demographic Challenge: Promoting private sector development and addressing the high population growth rate.

Economic Performance and Outlook

Recent Developments (2016–2017)

• Real GDP Growth: Reached 5 percent in 2016 and is expected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2017, driven by growth in the hydrocarbon and service sectors.
• Inflation: Remained contained at 0.2 percent in 2016, with an annual average of 1.3 percent in October 2017.
• Current Account Deficit: Expected to decline to 13.4 percent of GDP in 2017, supported by increased oil product exports and a rebound in uranium exports.
• Fiscal Performance:
  • Total revenue fell short by 1.2 percent of GDP in the first nine months of 2017.
  • Expenditure under-execution exceeded revenue shortfalls, with domestic budget financing and arrears reduction progressing.
  • The arrears clearance program was back on track, with the annual reduction target surpassed in September 2017.

Outlook and Risks

• GDP Growth: Projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2018, with continued donor support and reform efforts.
• Challenges:
  • Adverse external developments, including depressed uranium prices and security threats, pose risks.
  • High population growth (3.9 percent) could dilute investment and challenge job creation.
• Positive Factors:
  • Strong donor support helps mitigate the adverse effects of fiscal consolidation.
  • Reform momentum and improved business environment could lead to a virtuous cycle of private sector development.

Structural Reforms and Implementation

• Progress:
  • The Large Taxpayer Unit's coverage and functions were expanded.
  • A medium-term fiscal framework and outcome-oriented expenditure plans were prepared and discussed in the National Assembly.
  • The National Gender Policy was updated, and a five-year gender action plan is being formulated.
• Delays and Challenges:
  • The establishment of a Treasury Single Account (TSA) has stalled.
  • Customs reforms, such as the electronic linkup with Togo and Benin, are expected to be completed only by the end of 2017.
  • The VAT refund system is not yet fully implemented, with a temporary solution allowing mining companies to self-deduct refunds.
  • The submission of new legislation on public-private companies has been delayed.

Risks to Program Performance

• Implementation Capacity: Limited capacity hinders the progress of structural reforms.
• Security Conditions: Terrorist incursions and instability affect trade and require high fiscal outlays.
• Commodity Price Shocks: Unfavorable prices for key exports, such as uranium, threaten economic stability.
• Demographic Pressure: Rapid population growth risks undermining economic development and poverty reduction.

Donor Support and External Environment

• Donor Assistance: High donor support has been crucial in maintaining macroeconomic stability and improving the balance of payments.
• External Cooperation: Niger's role as a transit country for European migrants has placed it on the European external cooperation agenda.

Summary of Key Indicators

Conclusion

The ECF-supported program for Niger is progressing, with the government demonstrating commitment to macroeconomic stability and structural reforms. While challenges remain, particularly in implementation capacity and external shocks, the program's framework is realistic and ambitious. Continued donor support and reform efforts are expected to drive economic growth and development, especially in the context of a rapidly growing population and a need for job creation. The recent decision to leave the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI) is seen as a setback and may require reconsideration to maintain progress in the mining sector.