20240419-浙商证券-万华化学-600309.SH-万华化学一季报点评_一季度毛利改善明显_新项目有序推进驱动成长_5页_570kb

Summary

万华化学在2024年第一季度业绩表现出色，实现营收4616亿元，同比增长100.7%，环比增长78.4%；归母净利润416亿元，同比增长25.7%，环比增长10.9%。主要产品价差环比显著改善，如聚合MDI-纯苯/煤炭价差环比增长113%，乙烯-丙烷价差增幅高达4900%。公司毛利率为17.63%，环比提升0.77个百分点，主要是原材料价格下滑所致。

尽管公司保持快速增长，但净利率有所下降，表明期间费用增加。未来公司MDI价格有望继续回升，下游需求回暖和全球供给端的部分装置停产将进一步推动价格上涨。此外，公司持续推进新项目，包括福建MDI装置扩产至80万吨/年、石化板块乙烯装置扩建等，有望在未来持续受益。

据盈利预测，公司2024-2026年归母净利润预期将逐步增长，分别为2004.6亿元、2423.7亿元和2798.5亿元。当前估值对应PE分别为13.66倍、11.30倍和9.78倍。报告维持“买入”评级，重点关注新产能落地及市场需求恢复情况。

English Translation

Wanhua Chemical achieved outstanding performance in Q1 2024, with revenue of RMB 461.6 billion (+100.7% YoY, +78.4% QoQ) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 416 billion (+25.7% YoY, +10.9% QoQ). Significant improvement in gross margin (from 16.69% to 17.63%) was attributed to lower raw material costs. Although net profit margin declined, active price differences for key products, especially MDI and ethylene, have risen significantly, supported by reduced supply and higher downstream demand.

Future growth is driven by ongoing capacity expansions, including MDI production expansion and major projects in petrochemicals. Analysts maintain a "Buy" recommendation with 13-17x PE forecast for 2024-2026, highlighting the company’s strategic positioning and strong prospects for high-growth in the medium term. Risks include new capacity delays and raw material price fluctuations.