20230903-东吴证券-固收周报_央行下调外汇存款准备金率有何意义__38页_2mb

Foreign Exchange Deposit Reserve Rate Cut: The People's Bank of China reduced the foreign exchange deposit reserve rate from 6% to 4% effective September 15, 2023, to boost financial institutions' foreign exchange fund usage. Forecast to increase forex market supply, alleviate RMB depreciation pressure, and is a signal amid factors like dollar strength, global risks, and holiday demand. However, due to the lack of money multiplier effect, its policy impact is limited, and the RMB depreciation缓解 effect awaits observation.

US Economic Analysis: Recent US data show a moderate PCE inflation at 0.22% year-on-year, cooling labor market with slight unemployment rise, and stable manufacturing with PMI indicating contraction but potential stabilization. The Fed's path is uncertain due to lingering inflation risks and soft landing possibilities; Fedwatch data suggest a high probability of pausing interest rates in September.

Market Data: China's bond market saw net issuance in local government and credit bonds, with detailed local bond data including high volumes in Guangdong, Sichuan, and Xinjiang provinces. Credit spreads narrowed for some bonds, reflecting market stability, but risks remain in sectors like real estate and materials.

Risk Considerations: Key risks include unexpected virus spread, economic slowdown, re-inflation, and geopolitical tensions, all potentially exacerbating market uncertainties.