全球门户城市（英文版）_18页_7mb

Summary of CBRE Research: Global Gateway Cities (Asia Pacific) - November 2017

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of commercial real estate markets in major gateway cities across the Asia Pacific region, including Beijing, Hong Kong, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, and Sydney. It highlights the economic, occupier, supply, rent, and investment trends in these cities, emphasizing their role as key hubs in the global economy.

Main Points

Economic Trends

• Beijing: GDP growth in H1 2017 was 6.8%, with services being the main driver. The economy is concentrated in Tier 1 cities.
• Hong Kong: GDP growth in H1 2017 was 4.0%, doubling the 2016 rate. Growth is supported by trade, tourism, and local consumption.
• Seoul: The economy is recovering with a real GDP growth of 0.9% in Q1 2017. Political uncertainty has been resolved, and sentiment is improving.
• Shanghai: GDP growth in H1 2017 was 6.9%, outperforming expectations. Services and consumption are driving growth.
• Singapore: Economic sentiment is improving, with manufacturing and export-oriented services leading growth. Tourism has seen a modest increase.
• Sydney: Economic growth in Australia is stabilizing but remains below historical trends. NSW's economy has slowed.

Occupier Trends

• Beijing: High-quality new projects met demand, leading to strong net take-up. Domestic companies, especially in finance and TMT, drove leasing activity. Foreign occupiers were more cautious.
• Hong Kong: Office leasing activity remained stable, with lease renewals preferred due to low vacancy. Chinese companies were active in CBD.
• Seoul: Leasing activity was strong in Central and Gangnam Business Districts. Yeouido remained quiet. Demand for new space is expected to continue.
• Shanghai: Office net absorption in H1 2017 was 581,279 sq. m., twice that of 2016. Finance, manufacturing, and TMT sectors led demand.
• Singapore: Technology and co-working operators remained active. Banking and finance showed mixed prospects. Older properties in fringe areas face challenges.
• Sydney: Demand for commercial assets is strong, with domestic and offshore investors showing interest. White collar employment growth has slowed.

Supply Trends

• Beijing: 195,000 sq. m. of new office space was completed in H1 2017, with 756,000 sq. m. scheduled for 2018. New supply is expected to increase vacancy.
• Hong Kong: New Grade A office supply of 2.8 million sq. ft. is expected in 2017, with 1.9 million sq. ft. projected annually for the next four years. Supply is concentrated in peripheral areas.
• Seoul: 97,000 sq. m. of new office space was added in H1 2017, with 136,000 sq. m. expected in H2. Vacancy is projected to rise.
• Shanghai: 1.6 million sq. m. of new office space is projected for 2017, with 55% in traditional CBDs. Vacancy is expected to rise.
• Singapore: Total new office supply between Q3 2017 and 2021 is estimated at 5.49 million sq. ft., with a lower annual average due to strata-titled stock.
• Sydney: 1.7 million sq. m. of new office space was completed in H1 2017, with 3.9 million sq. m. under construction.

Rent Trends

• Beijing: Office rents remained stable, with upward trends in core submarkets. Retail rents showed slight growth.
• Hong Kong: Grade A office rents rose by 2.3% in H1 2017. Retail rents showed growth, but sentiment is expected to remain stable.
• Seoul: Average effective rents for Grade A office buildings rose by 0.4% in Q2 2017. Vacancy is expected to hit historical highs.
• Shanghai: Office rents showed slight year-over-year decline, with retail rents up by 0.8%. Prime office rents remained flat.
• Singapore: Office rents stabilized, with modest growth expected. Retail rents faced downward pressure due to oversupply.
• Sydney: Rent growth and total return expectations favor lower-risk markets. Vacancy rates are expected to remain low.

Investment Activity

• Beijing: Five large value-add transactions were closed in H1 2017, with property funds and local investors active. Capital was deployed in business parks.
• Hong Kong: Investment volume rose by 50% year-over-year, with government site disposals driving prices. Property funds and local investors were most active.
• Seoul: Investment activity increased in Q2 2017, with a focus on core office assets with long lease terms and value-add opportunities.
• Shanghai: Investment volume reached a historical high, with office accounting for 76% of transactions. Business parks drove growth.
• Singapore: CRE investment volume rose by 24.5% in Q2 2017. Large assets dominated, including the sale of Jurong Point.
• Sydney: Investment activity was strong, with a focus on lower-risk markets. Domestic capital is returning home.

Yield Trends

• Beijing: Prime office yields remained at 4.5%, retail at 4.6%. Yields are expected to compress further.
• Hong Kong: Prime office yields were at 2.8%, retail at 3.3%. Office yields are expected to compress due to low vacancy.
• Seoul: Prime office yields compressed slightly, retail yields remained stable. Capital values are expected to stay constant.
• Shanghai: Prime office yields compressed by 5 bps, retail yields at 4.3%. Yields are expected to remain stable.
• Singapore: Grade A office yields reached 3%, retail yields at 4.77%. Yield compression is expected in retail.
• Sydney: Office and retail yields remained stable, with a focus on lower-risk markets.

Key Information

• Gateway cities are vital for global trade and investment, offering high liquidity and transparency.
• These cities have diversified economies and are resilient to economic fluctuations.
• Office remains the preferred asset type for investment due to its stability and demand.
• Retail investment is more subdued due to limited tradable assets and higher management requirements.
• Supply growth is expected to increase vacancy and put downward pressure on rents.
• Value-add strategies are gaining traction, with investors seeking opportunities in conversions and redevelopments.