2012年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_survey_of_professional_forecasters_for_the_fourth_quarter_of_2012_6页_262kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Fourth Quarter of 2012 Results Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2012 provides insights into inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment expectations for the euro area. The survey was conducted from 16 to 22 October 2012 and received 56 responses. It compares these expectations with those from the previous survey round (Q3 2012) and other macroeconomic indicators.

Main Views and Key Information

Inflation Expectations

• 2012: Inflation expectations increased to 2.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous survey round.
• 2013: Inflation expectations rose to 1.9%, also up by 0.2 percentage points.
• 2014: Inflation expectations remained unchanged at 1.9%.
• Longer-term (2017): Inflation expectations stayed at 2.0%, with a slight decrease in the probability of inflation being at or above 2.0% (from 52% to 51%).
• Uncertainty: Aggregate uncertainty increased slightly, with the standard deviation of the aggregate probability distribution rising to 0.3 percentage points from 0.2 percentage points.
• Reasons for Revisions: Higher commodity prices and indirect taxes were cited as the main factors for upward revisions in 2012 and 2013.

GDP Growth Expectations

• 2012: GDP growth expectations decreased to -0.5%, down by 0.2 percentage points.
• 2013: GDP growth expectations fell to 0.3%, down by 0.3 percentage points.
• 2014: GDP growth expectations were revised slightly to 1.3%, down by 0.1 percentage points.
• Longer-term (2017): GDP growth expectations remained stable at 1.8%.
• Factors Affecting Growth: Prolonged uncertainty in the euro area and weak economic indicators in summer and early autumn led to downward revisions. Net exports continue to be a positive contributor, but the impact has weakened due to slower growth in China and the U.S.
• Risk Assessment: Downside risks are dominated by fears of a renewed intensification of the sovereign debt crisis. Upside risks include a faster-than-expected recovery in private sector confidence following the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions programme.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2012: Unemployment rate expectations increased to 11.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points.
• 2013: Unemployment rate expectations rose to 11.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points.
• 2014: Unemployment rate expectations decreased to 11.2%, down by 0.4 percentage points.
• Longer-term (2017): Unemployment rate expectations dropped to 9.0%, down by 0.2 percentage points.
• Reasons for Revisions: Weaker-than-expected economic activity is the main cause of upward revisions in 2012 and 2013. The peak in unemployment is expected in 2013, with a subsequent decline due to structural reforms in some countries.
• Risk Assessment: Main upside risks include further economic weakness and slower implementation of structural reforms. Downside risks are associated with the long-term impact of reforms in certain countries.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil Prices: Expected to rise from $102 per barrel in the previous survey round to $110 per barrel in the current round, with $113 per barrel expected for 2014.
• Compensation per Employee Growth: Expected to be 2.0% in 2012, 1.8% in 2013, and 1.9% in 2014. These are somewhat higher than 2012 and lower than 2014 in the previous round.
• Interest Rates: Expected to decrease to 0.6% in 2013 and increase to 0.8% in 2014.
• USD/EUR Exchange Rate: Expected to remain stable at around 1.28 up to 2014.

Summary of Key Trends

The SPF results indicate a more pessimistic outlook for short-term GDP growth and a slightly more optimistic view for inflation compared to the previous survey round. Unemployment expectations have risen for 2012 and 2013, with a slight decrease in 2014. Longer-term expectations for both inflation and unemployment remain relatively stable, though uncertainty persists.