2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sri_Lanka_Eighth_and_Final_Review_Under_the_Stand_47页_1mb

Summary of Sri Lanka's Eighth and Final Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the findings and assessments of the Eighth and Final Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Sri Lanka, conducted by the IMF staff and reviewed by the Executive Board on July 20, 2012. It includes the Staff Report, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director, with key policy discussions and a review of economic performance, fiscal and monetary policies, and debt sustainability.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• Growth: Real GDP growth was robust in early 2012, reaching 8% y/y, but has since moderated due to policy tightening and global demand slowdowns. Growth is expected to decline to 6.75% in 2012.
• Inflation: Headline inflation rose to 7% in May 2012, driven by energy price increases and depreciation, but core inflation remained stable at mid-single digits. Headline inflation is expected to peak near 10% by year-end.
• Trade: Imports and exports contracted due to falling prices and weak demand. Consumption goods imports dropped significantly, while investment goods imports continued to grow.
• Current Account: The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 5.5% of GDP in 2012, supported by stable remittances and tourism.
• Reserves: International reserves stabilized at US$5.8 billion (2.9 months of imports) by end-June 2012, following a sharp decline in late 2011.

Policy Discussions

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate, and Reserves

• Monetary Tightening: Interest rates and government bond yields increased, reflecting tighter monetary conditions. Credit growth slowed, partly due to a credit ceiling imposed on banks.
• Exchange Rate: The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has largely stopped intervening in the foreign exchange market, allowing the rupee to move more freely. However, exchange rate volatility remains a concern.
• Reserves: Staff projects that reserves will increase, though the ratio to short-term debt remains below 100%, and the level is below 3.5 months of imports.

Fiscal Policy and State Enterprise Reform

• Revenue Shortfall: Revenue is expected to fall short of the 2012 budget target by 0.75% of GDP, due to weak imports and slowing domestic activity.
• Deficit Management: The authorities are committed to meeting the 6.25% of GDP deficit target in 2012, with tight control over current spending and reduction of capital expenditure.
• State Enterprises: SOEs like the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) are expected to see reduced losses due to higher domestic fuel prices and lower international oil prices. However, hydroelectric generation is being reduced due to poor rainfall, increasing reliance on more expensive thermal generation.

Debt Sustainability

• Public Debt: Public debt is at 78.5% of GDP as of end-2011, with 35% being external. Under the baseline scenario, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 68.5% by 2017.
• External Debt: External debt is at 48.75% of GDP, with most being project loans. The ratio is expected to fall to 42.5% by 2017.
• Risks: Both public and external debt are vulnerable to exchange rate depreciation and contingent liabilities shocks, which could increase the debt-to-GDP ratio by 20% and 10%, respectively, by 2017.

Financial Sector

• Financial Soundness: The financial system has shown only marginal adverse impacts from tighter monetary conditions and exchange rate depreciation. Nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios have increased slightly, but remain low.
• Supervision: A new rating system is being introduced to improve bank supervision, with statutory annual onsite inspections starting in 2014.

Successor Arrangement

• The authorities expressed appreciation for the IMF's support under the expiring SBA and are interested in a successor arrangement to continue support for economic development and structural reforms.
• Discussions on a successor arrangement are expected during the fall 2012 Article IV consultation.

Key Risks

• Global Environment: A sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in global demand, especially in Europe and the United States, could negatively impact growth and the current account.
• Inflation: With little slack in the economy, there is a risk of second-round inflationary effects from depreciation and energy price increases.
• Exchange Rate Volatility: Although the exchange rate is more flexible, volatility remains a concern, particularly if it becomes one-sided or inconsistent with reserve targets.

Program Performance

• The end-June net international reserve (NIR) target was met, despite valuation changes and accelerated repayment of external oil credit lines.
• All structural benchmarks were implemented except for the regulatory framework for private pension funds, which will not be passed before the program expires.

Conclusion

• The Eighth Review confirms that monetary and fiscal policies have been effective in stabilizing the balance of payments and reducing the current account deficit.
• The transition to a flexible exchange rate is a major policy achievement, but continued vigilance is needed to manage risks and maintain macroeconomic stability.
• A successor arrangement is expected to be discussed in the fall 2012 Article IV consultation, to provide further support for economic development and structural reforms.

Summary of Key Figures and Tables

Economic and Program Performance

• Real GDP growth: 6.75% in 2012.
• Headline inflation: Expected to peak near 10% by year-end.
• Current account deficit: Projected to narrow to 5.5% of GDP.
• International reserves: Stabilized at US$5.8 billion (2.9 months of imports).

Fiscal Developments

• Revenue shortfall: 0.75% of GDP.
• Fiscal deficit: Targeted at 6.25% of GDP in 2012.
• Government debt: Declined from 14.9% of GDP in 2008 to 14.4% in 2012.

Monetary and External Developments

• Interest rates: Increased by about 100 basis points since the Seventh Review.
• Credit growth: Slowed due to the credit ceiling.
• Exchange rate: Depreciated sharply, with a real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciation.

Debt Sustainability

• Public debt-to-GDP: Expected to fall to 68.5% by 2017.
• External debt-to-GDP: Projected to decline to 42.5% by 2017.
• Debt sensitivity: Vulnerable to exchange rate depreciation and contingent liabilities shocks.

Conclusion

The Eighth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement marks the completion of the program, with the IMF approving the purchase of SDR 275.6 million. The program has helped stabilize the economy and reduce the current account deficit, but continued fiscal and monetary discipline is necessary to sustain the adjustment and support long-term growth. A successor arrangement is expected to be initiated to provide further support.