非银金融行业深度研究报告-ETF系列报告之二：中国台湾地区高股息ETF为何高歌猛进？-240626-华创证券-22页_2mb

中国台湾地区高股息ETF发展分析

中国大陆红利ETF发展前景：
在“新国九条”的指引下，上市公司更注重分红，为红利ETF提供更优质底层资产。2024年红利资产关注度提升，中国大陆红利ETF有了发展空间，预计可在投教、政策、制度设计等方面发力。看好未来红利ETF的渗透率和市场影响力。

台湾地区高股息ETF概述：

• 台湾ETF市场排名亚洲第三，规模三千八百四十九兆新台币（约一千二百五十九亿美元），2018年起成为最大共同基金，复合增速高达四零三%。
• 高股息ETF发展迅猛，2019-2023年复合增长率达一二二%，规模约三百四十三亿美元，占股票ETF规模的六九%.截至2024年中，高股息ETF占据台湾前十大ETF八席。

供给侧原因：

• 台湾资本市场特点：高科技产业主导，半导体领先全球，电子类股高比例托管。
• 指数高股息率：如台湾加权指数股息率常年居前。
• 产品机制：复华台湾科技优息ETF开创月度分红机制，提升资金流入。

需求侧原因：

• 经济下行、老龄化、社保体系压力、投资难度提升等推动投资者转向高股息资产配置。
• 收益平准金机制保证诚实分红，税优政策鼓励投资。

税收及交易机制：

• 高频配息ETF降低二代健保费负担，利于投资者特别是散户。
• 双币ETF交易机制灵活，增加流动性选择，但未覆盖高股息ETF，仍有发展空间。

潜在风险：

• ETF规模增速不及预期。
• 监管政策变动可能影响行业发展。
• 权益市场波动可能抑制ETF整体规模增长。

中国大陆红利ETF
备选：大陆红利ETF仍处起步阶段，风格策略类ETF规模占比较低，但未来政策引导下，有望走出特色发展道路。

Summary

The high-dividend ETFs in Taiwan Island have experienced rapid growth, becoming a distinctive feature globally. In Q2024, they hold a significant share of the stock ETF market (69% as of end-2023). Key drivers include: the attractive dividend yields in Taiwan's stock market (WCI high), innovative supply-side mechanisms like monthly dividends, and strong demand from an aging population and volatile markets reducing reliance on active investment.

The dual-price adjustment mechanism ensures fair distribution to all investors, mitigating price dilution. Tax advantages, particularly the avoidance of supplementary healthcare insurance premiums through frequent distributions, attract many investors. Taiwanese high-dividend ETFs, supported by strong underlying assets and favorable local mechanisms, are reshaping market trends and attracting substantial capital inflows.

For Mainland China, the "New Nine Guidelines" are expected to enhance corporate dividends, boosting the prospects for dividend ETFs. Regulatory support, improved education initiatives, and refined trading policies may accelerate this market's development. However, challenges like competition and policy uncertainty exist.

This report analyzes trends, mechanisms, and future directions, underscoring opportunities and risks in the ETF ...

中国大陆红利ETF发展前景：
在“新国九条”的指引下，上市公司更注重分红，为红利ETF提供更优质底层资产。2024年红利资产关注度提升，中国大陆红利ETF有了发展空间，预计可在投教、政策、 制度设计等方面发力。看好未来红利ETF的渗透率和市场影响力。

台湾地区高股息ETF概述：

• 台湾ETF市场排名亚洲第三，规模三千八百四十九兆新台币（约一千二百五十九亿美元），2018年起成为最大共同基金，复合增速高达四零三%。
• 高股息ETF发展迅猛，2019-2023年复合增长率达一二二%，规模约三百四十三亿美元，占股票ETF规模的六九%.
  截至2024年中，高股息ETF占据台湾前十大ETF八席。

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High-Dividend ETF Trend in Taiwan

Taiwan is becoming a key region in the global ETF market, especially in the high-dividend sector. Here is an insight into its growth and characteristics:

1. Market Size and Fundamentals

• As of December 2023, Taiwan ranks third globally in ETF size with over $1.259 trillion AUM.
• Growth surged in 2018, where ETFs overtook stock funds to become the dominant product category with rapid CAGR of over 393%.

2. Dominance of High-Dividend ETFs

• High-dividend ETFs saw an astonishing 122% CAGR between 2019 and 2023.
• Dominating nearly 69% of stock ETF space by size as of end-2023.

3. Underlying Asset Strength

• Taiwan's stock index offers a high dividend yield (example chart shows WCI ranking high over years).
• Trading in high-dividend ETFs (e.g., 台湾科技优息ETF) started as early as 2017 and gained immense popularity.

4. Supply-Side Innovation

• Modern mechanisms like monthly dividends (introduced by FeChu Taiwan Science Dividend ETF) have significantly boosted AUM and investor appeal.
• Use of assets like U.S. Treasury bonds and high-grade corporate bonds alongside local stocks broadens the scope and stability.

5. Driving Demand Side

• Economic headwinds and aging population in Taiwan have led investors to seek stabilizing cash flows.
• The efficiency of monthly dividends and capital preservation make them especially attractive for retirees and younger investors alike.
• Substantial evidence shows a passive investment shift away from active funds underperforming the market.

6. Regulatory and Tax Advantages

• Dual-price adjustment mechanism ensures fair distribution regardless of timing.
• Frequent dividends minimize supplementary healthcare taxes, attracting common investors due to their profitability.

Conclusion

Taiwan’s high-dividend ETF market leverages a perfect combination of strong economic fundamentals, innovative mechanism design & clear demand for stable income. The passive management trend growing now, with robust performance in 2023, positions high-dividend ETFs as a key category globally. The Mainland's rising emphasis on dividends—with the 'New Nine Guidelines'—also necessitates watching Taiwan’s model for future investment trends.