20220902-招银国际-奈雪的茶-02150.HK-Breakeven_achieved_with_more_flexible_costing_12页_1mb

报告摘要

Nayuki Holdings Limited (2150 HK) Summary

Core Content

Nayuki Holdings Limited (2150 HK) is a company in the Chinese catering sector that has recently experienced a turnaround in its financial performance. The company has achieved breakeven in June 2022, which was a positive surprise, and the outlook for the second half of 2022 is optimistic due to improved cost management and operational efficiency.

Main Points

Upgrade to BUY: The company's stock has been upgraded to "BUY" with a target price of HK$7.38, up from HK$7.00.
Valuation: The current valuation at 35x FY23E P/E is considered fair, while the P/S ratio of ~1.2x is more attractive than the industry median of 1.5x.
Profit Warning: In 1H22, the company reported a net loss of RMB 255mn, which was inline with the profit warning, but this was due to higher staff costs, depreciation, and utilities expenses.
Sales Performance: Sales fell by 4% YoY in 1H22, but the company has seen a gradual recovery in sales per store since April 2022.
Strategic Initiatives: The launch of the "light series" in 1H22 was effective in attracting customer traffic. The company is also expanding its RTD (Ready to Drink) business and planning to open "Nayuki lifestyle" stores in Shenzhen.

Key Information

Earnings Summary:
- Revenue: RMB 3,057mn (FY20A), RMB 4,297mn (FY21A), RMB 5,158mn (FY22E), RMB 7,052mn (FY23E), RMB 9,125mn (FY24E)
- EBITDA: RMB 227mn (FY21A), RMB 118mn (FY22E), RMB 208mn (FY23E), RMB 753mn (FY24E)
- Net Profit: RMB -202mn (FY20A), RMB -4,525mn (FY21A), RMB -141mn (FY22E), RMB 235mn (FY23E), RMB 529mn (FY24E)
- Adjusted Net Profit: RMB 26mn (FY20A), RMB -144mn (FY21A), RMB -120mn (FY22E), RMB 249mn (FY23E), RMB 547mn (FY24E)
- Adjusted EPS: RMB 0.015 (FY20A), RMB -0.084 (FY21A), RMB -0.070 (FY22E), RMB 0.145 (FY23E), RMB 0.319 (FY24E)
Earnings Revision:
- Revenue: Revised slightly for FY22E, FY23E, and FY24E.
- Gross Profit: Increased by 1.7% for FY22E, 0.5% for FY23E, and 2.9% for FY24E.
- EBIT: Improved significantly, with a 543% increase for FY22E, 8% for FY23E, and 11.3% for FY24E.
- Adjusted Net Profit: Revised upwards, with a 70.4% increase for FY22E, 6.9% for FY23E, and 11% for FY24E.
- Gross Margin: Remained stable at 67.3% for FY22E, FY23E, and FY24E.
- EBIT Margin: Improved from -0.7% to 6.0% and 8.7% for FY22E, FY23E, and FY24E respectively.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved from -2.3% to 3.5% and 6.0% for FY22E, FY23E, and FY24E respectively.
Valuation and Target Price:
- The target price is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 15.1% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%.
- The DCF-based valuation implies a 1.5x FY23E P/S ratio, which is in line with peer averages.
- The company's market cap is HK$10,205mn, with an average 3-month total return of HK$16.49mn.
Shareholding Structure:
- Mr. Zhao Lin & Ms. Peng Xin: 56.98%
- Tiantu Capital: 11.09%
- Employee incentive platform: 5.35%
- PAGAC Nebula: 5.28%
- Shenzhen Capital Group: 2.82%
- Free Float: 18.47%
Share Performance:
- 1-month return: 3.3%
- 3-month return: -7.6%
- 6-month return: -7.6%
- 12-month return: -50.3%
Assumptions:
- Sales CAGR: 29% for FY20-25E.
- EBITDA CAGR: 45% for FY20-25E.
- EBITDA margin in FY25: 13.2% (from 7.4% in FY20).
- WACC: 15.1% (higher than international peers' average of 7.7%, lower than Greater China leading peers' average of 16.1%).
- Terminal growth rate: 2.0%.
Valuation Table:
- DCF-based valuation shows a target price of HK$7.38.
- Sensitivity test indicates that the valuation is sensitive to changes in terminal growth and WACC.

Conclusion

Nayuki Holdings Limited has shown significant improvement in its financial performance and operational efficiency, leading to a "BUY" upgrade and a revised target price. The company's strategy of offering more lower-priced products and implementing automation has contributed to its turnaround. With a favorable valuation and positive outlook, the company is expected to achieve further growth in the near future.

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