2025-05-26-Jefferies-希森美康（6869）_中国市场阴云_下调预期和目标价但重申买入_10页_242kb

Sysmex Equity Research Summary (May 27, 2025)

Key Highlights

• Rating: BUY, reiterating strong position despite downward revisions.
• Price Target: Reduced to ¥2,800 (previously ¥3,300), representing ~15% upside.
• Estimate Change: Current-year estimates cut due to poor guidance; subsequent years trimmed based on dimming China outlook, particularly from VBP impacts.

Financial Projections

• EPS Impact: -10% for FY2025, -3% for FY2026.
• Revenue Growth: 10.2% in FY2025, projected 5.2% year-over-year in some segments, with slower growth in China (-1.2%).
• Valuation: EV/EBITDA 11x for FY2027, cheaper than Terumo (EV/EBITDA ~14x).

Market Outlook

• China: Sales under pressure from VBP, affecting immunochemistry and potentially hemostasis, with potential 4x worse impact than current.
• Other Regions: Americas and EMEA show stable growth; India is a bright spot.
• Products: Hematology and newer tech (e.g., Hinotori robot) offer growth opportunities.

Catalysts and Risks

• Upside: Strong India growth, Hinotori demand, potential for ESG targets.
• Downside: Competition from Mindray, expansion of VBP in China, delayed regulatory approvals.

Analyst Notes

• Downgrade driven by China uncertainties; reiteration of Buy balances risks with valuation.