2025-06-10-Jefferies-大塚控股（4578）_基于强劲的Sibe数据上调预期和目标价_重申买入_10页_250kb

Summary of Otsuka Holdings Analysis

Core Content

Otsuka Holdings has raised its estimates for Sibeprenlimab (Sibe) and updated its price target (PT) based on strong Phase 3 (Ph3) data from the VISIONARY study for IgAN. The updated global sales estimate for Sibe in 2034 is now $2.6 billion, up from $2.1 billion, with a 6% increase in the Core OP estimate. The PT has been raised to ¥9,700, representing a 36% upside from the current price, and the investment rating remains "Buy."

Main Points

• Sibe Estimate Increase: The interim analysis of the Ph3 VISIONARY study showed promising results, leading to a revised 2034 US market penetration estimate from 15% to 18% and a global sales estimate increase from $2.1 billion to $2.6 billion.
• Additional Candidate Added: Oncology candidate MK-1084 has been added to the estimates due to strong data at ASCO.
• Upcoming Events: Key upcoming events include the Rexulti PTSD AdCom in June, Zipalertinib NDA in 2H, and Sibe PDUFA on 28 November.
• Financial Projections: The financial forecast for FY12/26 shows increasing revenue and profit, with a projected core operating profit (OP) of ¥416 billion. The company is expected to see continued growth in key products like Rexulti and Abilify.
• Valuation Metrics: The PT of ¥9,700 is based on a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x. The company's valuation is also supported by its strong cash flow and increasing sales.
• Investment Thesis: Otsuka is viewed positively due to its diverse business model combining consumer brands and pharmaceuticals, and its potential for high profit growth from royalty income and key products. It trades at relatively low valuations, which may reflect a conglomerate discount.
• ESG Considerations: Otsuka is committed to sustainability goals, including a Carbon Net Zero policy by 2050 and using 100% recycled and plant-based materials in PET bottles by 2030.
• Risks: The report highlights risks such as the underperformance of key products like Rexulti and potential drug pricing pressures in Japan and the US.

Key Information

• Sibe's Efficacy: In the Ph2 study, the highest dose of Sibe led to a 1.5 ± 1.8 decline in eGFR over 12 months, compared to a 7.4 ± 1.8 decline in the placebo group, showing a 5.9 benefit. The report anticipates an 8-point benefit over 104 weeks.
• Market Potential: Sibe could be approved for more severe patients due to the inclusion of an exploratory cohort with eGFR scores of 20-29 in the Ph3 trial.
• Financial Highlights: FY12/24 sales were ¥2,330 billion, with a projected increase to ¥2,858 billion in FY12/33. The company's EPS is expected to grow from ¥634 in FY12/24 to ¥933 in FY12/33.
• Valuation Multiples: The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 13.6x in FY12/24 to 7.6x in FY12/33. The EV/EBITDA multiple is projected to fall from 8.8x to 5.0x.
• Dividend Yield: The dividend yield is expected to rise from 1.4% in FY12/24 to 2.3% in FY12/33.
• Investment Recommendation: The "Buy" rating is based on the expectation of a 15% or more total return within 12 months, with the PT serving as a guide for potential upside.

Investment Catalysts

• FDA AdCom for Rexulti PTSD: Expected in June.
• Zipalertinib NDA: Scheduled for 2H.
• Sibe PDUFA: Set for 28 November.

Analyst Certification

• Stephen Barker and Miyabi Yamakita have certified that the views in the report reflect their personal opinions and that their compensation is not tied to the report's recommendations.
• The analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to certain FINRA rules.

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a range of valuation methods including market capitalization, growth, value, volatility, and expected total return. Price targets are based on EV/EBITDA, P/E, and other financial metrics.

Risks

• Product Performance: Key products like Rexulti may not meet growth expectations.
• Regulatory and Pricing Pressures: Potential pricing cuts in Japan and the US could impact profitability.
• Market Volatility: The report notes that the stock may be subject to volatility, with a stop-loss mechanism in place for certain stocks.

Investment Recommendation Record

• The report was published on June 10, 2025, at 3:07 A.M.
• It includes disclosures of Jefferies' role as financial advisor in a past transaction with Otsuka.

Summary of Jefferies Ratings

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more.
• Hold: Expected total return of ±15%.
• Underperform: Expected total return of ≤10%.
• NR/CS/NC: Indicates different statuses of coverage and rating suspension.

Conclusion

Otsuka Holdings is positioned for growth, with strong financials and promising pipeline products. The updated estimates and PT reflect confidence in the company's future performance, especially with Sibe's potential as a market leader. However, the company faces risks including product performance and regulatory challenges. The investment thesis is based on a diversified business model and potential for high returns, making it an attractive opportunity for investors seeking growth.