2025-05-26-Jefferies-因斯塔卡特（CART）_队列分析支持更高的估计和目标价格_16页_220kb

Summary of Equity Research on Instacart (CART)

• Rating and Price Target: Hold rating; price target raised from $48 to $50, representing a ~6% upside.
• Cohort Analysis Findings: Grocery Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth stabilized at ~7% YoY, down from ~10% YoY in early 2024. Growth driven by order count steadiness, with new cohorts moderating at ~5% annually, projecting a 7% compound annual growth rate through 2027.
• Margin Visibility Issues: Concerns over affordability initiatives reducing Average Order Value moderation, and slower-than-expected growth in high-margin advertising revenue, which may limit margin expansion.
• Estimate Adjustment: Estimates raised to slightly above consensus for 2025-2026 GTV and EBITDA due to cohort analysis, supporting the higher price target, reflecting 12x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple.
• Key Risks: Intense competition; reliance on advertising for margin leverage; slowing online grocery penetration; expiring exclusivity agreements; affordability-driven competitive reactions.
• Business Overview: Instacart operates a four-sided marketplace connecting grocery retailers, shoppers, consumers, and advertisers, with enterprise technologies for fulfillment, ads, and insights.
• Financial Highlights: Evidence of stabilized growth in key metrics like GTV, EBITDA, and cash flow, though margin progression remains uncertain due to recent marketing ramps and cautious CPG advertiser spending.