全球碳市场进展2025_271页_16mb

Emissions Trading Worldwide: Status Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the current status and future outlook of Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) globally, highlighting their role in the transition toward net-zero emissions. It outlines the growing number of ETSs, their evolving design, and the increasing focus on market-based mechanisms to support climate action.

Key Developments in 2024

• Number of ETSs: As of January 2025, 38 ETSs are in force globally, with an additional 20 under development or consideration.
• Global Coverage: These systems cover just over 10 GTCO₂e, or 19% of global GHG emissions, and span jurisdictions accounting for one-third of the global population and 58% of global GDP.
• ETS Expansion: There is a noticeable trend toward expanding ETS coverage to new sectors, such as maritime transport, buildings, and waste management.
• Price Trends: Most major ETSs saw a decline in average prices in 2024 compared to 2023, but auctioning remains a key focus for many systems.
• Revenue Recycling: Jurisdictions are increasingly using auction revenues to support climate mitigation, consumer protection, and technological innovation.

Main Trends and Outlook

• Global Momentum: ETSs are becoming a more prominent policy tool in the global climate strategy, especially as countries aim to meet more ambitious climate targets.
• New ETSs in Emerging Economies: Middle-income countries such as Brazil, India, Chile, Colombia, and Türkiye are accelerating their ETS development, with some already in operation or in the pilot phase.
• Hybrid Systems: Some systems are adopting hybrid approaches, combining emissions trading with carbon taxes or crediting mechanisms to create flexible pathways for emission reductions.
• EU ETS Reforms: The EU ETS is undergoing significant reforms, including a new system for buildings, road transport, and other sectors, which could double the coverage of emissions.
• Price Corridors and Auctions: Systems like Germany and Austria are moving toward price corridors and auction-based allocation models, enhancing market efficiency and price signals.
• Carbon Leakage Concerns: Countries are exploring mechanisms like Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) to address carbon leakage and maintain competitiveness.

Key Challenges

• Market Volatility: The 2024 market volatility affected average prices in major ETSs, with some systems experiencing declines due to economic uncertainty and regulatory adjustments.
• Fragmentation of Credit Markets: The compliance-grade carbon credit market remains fragmented, with varying eligibility criteria and standards across jurisdictions.
• Public Acceptability: As carbon prices rise and caps tighten, governments are adopting strategies to ensure public support, such as direct compensation and reinvestment in equity and sustainability initiatives.
• Just Transition: Balancing environmental goals with economic and social equity is critical, especially in the context of a just transition.

Future Prospects

• ETS Alignment with Net-Zero: ETSs are being reformed to align with net-zero trajectories, including the introduction of removal credits and negative emissions.
• International Cooperation: Global initiatives like the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) are playing a key role in fostering cross-border collaboration and policy coordination.
• Capacity Building: ICAP continues to support capacity building, technical knowledge sharing, and policy dialogue among jurisdictions to ensure effective and resilient ETSs.

Conclusion

As new systems emerge and existing ones evolve, closer cooperation is essential to ensure that carbon markets remain effective and aligned with the overarching goal of a net-zero future. ETSs are increasingly seen as a critical tool for achieving deep decarbonization, providing long-term price signals and market frameworks to guide investments and innovation. The report emphasizes the need for continued ambition, policy refinement, and international alignment to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.