_2025年度全球碳市场进展报告_271页_16mb

报告摘要

Emissions Trading Worldwide: Status Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

The International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) has published the Status Report 2025 on Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) globally, highlighting the progress, challenges, and future directions of carbon markets. The report underscores the critical role of ETSs in achieving global decarbonization goals and the increasing momentum in their adoption and development.

Key Statistics

38 ETSs are currently in force, covering just over 10 GTCO₂e or 19% of global GHG emissions.
20 additional systems are under development or consideration.
17 of the G20 countries have ETSs or are planning to implement them, either at the national or sub-national level.
The EU ETS is the largest system in terms of trading value and volume.
New systems are expanding coverage to sectors such as maritime transport, buildings, and waste management.

Main Trends and Outlook

Global Momentum

Emissions trading is gaining traction as a key policy instrument for climate action.
Emerging economies are playing a leading role in the development and implementation of ETSs, moving beyond traditional cap-and-trade models to more innovative systems.
Intensities-based systems are becoming more common, especially in developing countries.
Hybrid approaches are being explored, combining emissions trading with carbon taxes or crediting mechanisms.

Price and Revenue Trends

Market volatility was observed in 2024, with most ETSs recording lower average prices compared to 2023.
EU ETS and UK ETS saw price declines, while China and Korea experienced more stable or moderate price growth.
Auction revenues declined for the first time in several years, reaching USD 70 billion in 2024, USD 4 billion less than in 2023.
Reforms are shifting towards market-based allocation of allowances, reducing free allocation and enhancing price signals.

ETS Expansion and Coverage

EU ETS is expanding to include maritime transport and flights to/from outermost regions, with a new ETS (ETS 2) for buildings, road transport, and additional sectors set to launch in 2027.
China's national ETS is expanding to cover cement, steel, and aluminum industries, increasing its total coverage by 3 GTCO₂e or 5% of global GHG emissions.
Regional pilots in China are incorporating new sectors such as data centers, solid waste, ceramics, ports, aviation, and road transport.

Offsets and Crediting

Offsets and crediting mechanisms are becoming more prominent in ETS design, especially in new systems.
24 out of 38 ETSs allow for the use of carbon credits, with strict limits on their use.
Domestic credits are currently the focus, with limited international credit acceptance.
Compliance-grade carbon credit markets are fragmented, with varying eligibility criteria and standards.

Challenges and Considerations

Carbon leakage and competitiveness are major concerns, leading to the introduction of carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) by the EU and UK.
Public acceptability and just transition are critical to the success of ETSs, with governments increasingly using revenue recycling to support vulnerable communities and promote equity.
Market stability and price signals are being refined to support long-term decarbonization and technological innovation.

International Cooperation

ICAP is a key international forum promoting collaboration and knowledge-sharing among ETS jurisdictions.
Global initiatives such as the International Carbon Action Partnership, Global Carbon Pricing Challenge, and World Bank's Partnership for Market Implementation are facilitating cross-border cooperation and policy alignment.
International cooperation is essential to prevent market fragmentation and ensure effective, resilient, and aligned carbon markets with the net-zero goal.

A Year of ETS Developments

Europe and Central Asia

Austria launched its national ETS in 2022, covering fossil fuels not included in the EU ETS. It is aligning with EU ETS 2 and will opt in fuels used in agriculture and forestry.
EU ETS continues to be the largest system, with a revised cap and expanded scope to include maritime transport and flights to/from outermost regions.
Germany launched its national ETS in 2021, covering heating and transport fuels not included in the EU ETS. It will transition to EU ETS 2 in 2027 and is phasing out free allowances for agriculture and rail.
Kazakhstan has been operating its ETS for 13 years, with updated allocation plans and reduced caps for 2024 and 2025.
Montenegro has a national ETS covering large installations in power and industrial sectors, but only one installation remains active.
Switzerland is aligning its ETS with the EU ETS through reforms, including linear reduction factors and CCS and foreign biogas eligibility.
Türkiye is preparing to launch its ETS in 2026, with a long-term strategy and international cooperation underway.
Ukraine is developing its national ETS, with the pilot phase expected in 2028. The Climate Law and ETS decree are in progress, and mandatory reporting was reintroduced in 2025.

North America

Alberta introduced the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Regulation (TIER) in 2020, based on emissions intensity.
British Columbia launched the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) in April 2024, replacing the CleanBC Industrial Incentive Program.
California continues to operate a comprehensive cap-and-trade program, linked with Québec since 2014, and has advanced reforms and linkage discussions with Washington.
Canada federal has a backstop system in place since 2019, with draft regulations for a national ETS targeting upstream oil and gas and LNG production.
Colorado launched its ETS in 2024, initially covering large in-state manufacturers, with expansions planned for 2028.
Oregon reinstated its ETS after it was invalidated in 2023.
Maryland is actively considering establishing an economy-wide ETS.
New York State is developing program rules for an economy-wide ETS.

Conclusion

As new systems emerge and existing ones evolve, closer cooperation is essential to ensure that carbon markets remain effective, resilient, and aligned with the overarching goal of a net-zero future. ETSs are playing a crucial role in setting clear emission reduction targets, promoting cost-effective decarbonization, and fostering innovation. However, greater ambition, policy refinement, and international coordination are needed to support long-term structural transformations and prevent market fragmentation.