20251207-国泰期货-胶版印刷纸周度报告_19页_1mb

Glued-Printing Paper Weekly Report Summary

• From: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute
• Author: Shi Yin
• Date: December 7, 2025

Industry Updates

• Double-coated paper production increased to a 54.22% capacity utilization rate, up 0.79 percentage points, driven by higher demand from print orders.
• Inventory days rose by 1.69%, indicating stock accumulation due to limited social demand, end-of-year inventory consolidation, and cautious dealer behavior before tonnage payments.

Market Trends

• Current prices for double-coated paper are around 4432.5 yuan/ton for 70g high-white, showing slight weekly stability.
• Cost-profit analysis reveals low pre-tax margins despite operational profitability, with factors like freight costs influencing price dynamics.

Supply and Demand

• Industry capacity has expanded 7% in 2024 to 1652,000 tons, with output at 947,800 tons and 57% utilization.
• Short-term production and sales align with existing capacity, while high exports (70,000 tons in October) and low imports (12,000 tons) highlight export dominance and domestic excess.
• Terminal demand for book and newspaper goods is weakening, as retail growth slows key indicators.

Market Outlook

• Short-term outlook suggests a narrow trading range with limited trading opportunities due to potential supply increases, waning demand, and pulp price declines.
• Recommend short-term观望 due to the risk of price uncertainty driven by market expectations or events; overall valuation appears low but high margins are challenging.