20171116-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_8页_423kb

报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE Summary

Core Content

This document is a morning meeting note from Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. dated 16 November 2017, focusing on Turkey's economic and financial developments in the context of Emerging Markets (EM) Strategy. It provides insights into foreign exchange (FX) flows, fiscal data, labor market trends, and market-related instruments such as bonds and swaps, along with legal and regulatory disclosures.

Main Points and Key Information

1. FX and Portfolio Flows

The CBRT will release portfolio flow data for the week ending 10 November 2017.
Local investors increased FX deposits by USD 0.9bn, reversing previous USD 9bn FX sales since mid-September.
Offshore investors reduced their bond portfolio by USD 0.4bn, but increased local bond holdings by USD 7bn this year.
The bond yields and TRY remained stable during the week, causing a short pause in the previous currency uptrend.

2. Fiscal Deficit Trends

The annualized central government budget deficit to GDP increased by 0.1pp m/m to 1.8% in October.
This is below the end-year government forecast of 2.0%, but the strategy team expects a slight deficit over target.
The deficit is up by 0.7pp from last year, with 0.5pp due to declining revenues and 0.2pp due to increasing expenditures.
The tax amnesty contributed TRY 13.7bn in Q4 2016, but has slowed to TRY 1.3bn/month in recent months.
The team expects further deterioration in the annualized deficit and a year-end ratio of around 2.5%.

3. Labor Market Improvements

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.3pp m/m to 10.8% in August.
This is a significant improvement from the peak of 11.9% in December.
Despite an increase in the labor force participation rate by 0.5pp to 52.9%, the labor market has shown strength.
Non-farm employment increased by 239K m/m in August, the highest monthly change since February 2014.
This brought the total non-farm employment increase for the year to 922K.

4. Market Instruments Overview

Table 1 provides a snapshot of FX and bond market data, including spot rates, swap rates, bond yields, and prices.
USDTRY is at 3.8834, with -0.2% daily change and +0.2% weekly change.
EURTRY is at 4.5773, with -0.1% daily change and +1.4% weekly change.
BASKET (50% USDTRY + 50% EURTRY) is at 4.2303, with -0.2% daily change and +0.8% weekly change.
Local bonds (2Y, 5Y, 10Y) and eurobonds are included, along with corporate bonds and CPI linkers.
Yields and prices are noted, along with volatility data and swap rates.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

The document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
It is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the issuers or securities mentioned.
The document may contain simulated performance data, which is not indicative of actual results.
It does not constitute a prospectus or public offering.
Transactions involving the products discussed are subject to high risk and volatility.
Confidentiality is emphasized, and reproduction or distribution without consent is not permitted.

Contacts

Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, London, +44 20 7595 8746
Marcelo Carvalho: Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3418
Piotr Chwiejczak: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 8715
Sai Ulluri: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 1872
Erkin Işik, CFA: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul, +90 216 635 2987
Mirza Baig: Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore, +65 6210 3262
Altaz Daga: AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore, +65 6210 4994
Dawn Kwa: Asia Graduate, Singapore, +65 6210 3263
Kun Shan: China Strategist, Shanghai, +86 21 2896 2773
Tianhe Ji: China Strategist, Shanghai, +86 21 2896 2785
Gabriel Gersztein: Head FX & IR Latam Strategy, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3421
Samuel Castro: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3492
Gustavo Mendonca: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3445

Disclaimer

The document does not constitute an offer to sell or advice.
BNP Paribas may have acted on the information before publication.
No liability is accepted for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the document.
Simulated performance is provided for illustrative purposes only.
The information is not guaranteed in accuracy or completeness.
Confidentiality is required, and distribution is restricted.
The document is subject to change and may be discontinued.