2026年全球贸易调查报告_32页_1mb

Allianz Trade Global Survey 2026 Summary

Core Content

The Allianz Trade Global Survey 2026 highlights how exporters are adapting to a volatile global environment shaped by geopolitical shocks, particularly the Middle East conflict, and ongoing US tariffs. The survey, which includes responses from 6,000 companies across 13 countries, reveals a complex landscape of risk, financial strain, and strategic shifts.

Main Views and Key Insights

1. Geopolitical and Political Risks as the Largest Threat

• Geopolitical and political risks (e.g., war, tariffs, expropriation, social unrest) are now the top concern for 65% of firms, up 11pps from 2025.
• Supply-chain complexity has dropped to third place (45%), down 30pps.
• Supply-related risks (supplier bankruptcies, input shortages) have risen to second place (57%), up 30pps.
• Global business insolvencies have reached record levels, 24% above pre-pandemic averages.

2. Export Confidence and Market Outlook

• Export confidence has held up better than during the 2025 tariff shock, with 75% of firms still expecting positive growth.
• Confidence drops vary by region: Vietnamese, American, and Spanish firms lost more than 10pps, while Chinese firms dropped 9pps to 51%.
• Chinese firms are the most pessimistic about export turnover, with 8% expecting negative growth.

3. Operational Adjustments

• Over half of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, especially in Vietnam (60%), the US (55%), India (55%), and Brazil (52%).
• Customs brokers are increasingly used to expedite clearance, with Vietnam (64%) and India (56%) leading the trend.
• Adjustments to delivery schedules are also common.

4. Trade Finance and Payment Terms

• Payment terms are lengthening, with 24% of firms expecting delays over 70 days (up 7pps).
• Only 7% of firms are paid within 30 days, down 4pps from 2025.
• Larger firms are more affected, with 42% of companies with turnover above EUR3bn facing payment terms over 70 days.
• Non-payment risk fears have increased to 40% of firms, up 6pps since the conflict began.
• The most affected sectors are transport equipment, pharmaceuticals, and computers/telecoms.

5. Reshoring Dynamics

• The Middle East conflict has accelerated reshoring intent, especially in Europe.
• Poland, the UK, and France lead in reshoring, while the US and Vietnam move in the opposite direction.
• The UAE shows a split response due to its dual role as a logistics hub and a region exposed to the conflict.
• Reshoring is still a strong trend (72% of firms), but the pace of change has increased.

6. AI Adoption and Strategic Intent

• AI adoption is nearly universal, with only 0.5% of exporters not using it.
• However, strategic intent and growth expectations vary: Indian firms are the most optimistic (61% expect AI to boost exports by 10%+), while European firms lag behind (18–22%).
• UAE firms deploy AI at scale but remain cautious about its impact (22%).
• ROI uncertainty is the main barrier to AI growth optimism.

7. ESG and Sustainability

• The global ESG consensus has fractured, with ESG commitment falling 22pps to 62% (from 84% in 2025).
• China and the UK show the largest declines (47% and 55%, respectively).
• European firms are more resilient, with Germany at 76%.
• Despite the decline, 84% of firms remain confident in reaching net zero, and 26% aim for 5–10% CO$_2$ reductions.

8. Structural Shifts in Global Trade

• The US has lost appeal as a growth market, with only 13% of firms considering it as such (down from 17% in 2025).
• Europe and Asia (excluding China) are gaining interest, especially Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
• New FTAs like India-EU and MERCOSUR-EU are capturing attention, though non-tariff barriers (licensing, certification) remain a challenge.

Key Information

• Global GDP Growth: Expected to be +2.6% in 2026.
• Global Inflation: Projected at 4.3% in 2026.
• Payment Term Trends:
  • 7% of firms are paid within 30 days.
  • 24% of firms face payment delays over 70 days.
  • 70% of firms are paid between 30 and 70 days.
• Financing Sources:
  • Bank loans (46%) and internal cash flows (44%) remain dominant.
  • State support has declined in importance.
  • Private equity is used by 35% of firms, especially in emerging markets.

Seven Lessons from the Survey

1. Risk landscape: Geopolitical and political risks now dominate.
2. US tariffs: 80% of firms have adjusted trade routes to avoid higher tariffs.
3. De-risking: Operational adjustments are more common than contractual changes.
4. Geographic reorientation: US loses ground, Europe and Asia gain.
5. Payment terms: Structural lengthening is evident, especially in high-risk sectors.
6. ESG: A fractured consensus emerges as regulatory frameworks diverge.
7. AI adoption: A two-speed revolution with high usage but uneven growth optimism.

Conclusion

The Middle East conflict has added a new layer of complexity to global trade, with firms across the world adjusting their strategies to mitigate risk and adapt to shifting dynamics. While export confidence remains relatively stable, payment terms have lengthened significantly, and trade finance conditions have tightened. AI and ESG are areas of both opportunity and challenge, with varying levels of adoption and commitment. The survey underscores the need for diversified supply chains, enhanced risk management, and flexible financial strategies in the face of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.