英文_Bernstein_CrowdStrike（CRWD）2026财年第一季度_宏观经济放缓_下半年复苏_14页_832kb

Rating and Price Target: CrowdStrike Holdings Inc is rated Outperform with a revised price target of $371, down from the old target of $347, reflecting updated financial models based on current performance.

FQ1'26 Earnings: The quarter ended at the midpoint of guidance, with no earnings beat, leading to a post-market drop of about 6%. Management emphasized demand strength and expected H2 recovery, citing channel checks and broader market signals for rebound.

Growth Outlook: H2'26 anticipates accelerated ARR growth due to factors like Flex program adoption, CCP burn-off, and cloud-based services. ARR YoY growth is expected to recover to near 30% by the end of FY26, driven by high retention rates and market consolidation.

Valuation: The price target stems from a DCF model (WACC 10%, terminal growth 3%) and a P/S multiple-based regression, positioning CRWD at an average of its cloud SaaS cohort multiples.

Investment Implications: Despite Q1 weakness, the stock is recommended for Outperform due to modernization trends, government contract opportunities, and competitive advantages. Risks include macroeconomic headwinds and execution challenges in expanding market segments. Financial forecasts show improved NRR and margins, with key deals and Flex growth sustaining momentum.