2025-06-04-Bernstein-Crowdstrike控股公司（CRWD）_CrowdStrike_（CRWD）_2026财年第一季度_宏观经济放缓_下半年复苏_14页_409kb

Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) Bernstein Research Analysis Summary

Date: June 4, 2025
Analysts: Peter Weed, Armin Hadavi, Ranjit Vadlamannati

Key Highlights

• Rating: Outperform
• Price Target: $371 (down from $347)
• Current Stock Price: $488.76
• Sector: U.S. Small-Mid Cap Software

Earnings & Market Reaction

• Q1 '26 earnings met midpoint guidance but did not exceed expectations.
• Stock price declined ~6% post-earnings due to focus on macro slowdown concerns and deferral of weak April results.

H2 2026 Outlook

• Management emphasizes strong demand recovery in May and targeted reacceleration in H2 2026.
• Growth drivers include channel demand (Flex), cloud adoption, and infrastructure modernization.

Product & Competitive Factors

• Flex Program: Key growth driver, with 124% YoY ACV growth ($774MM in Q1); Flex customers saw triple-digit growth.
• Competitive Landscape: Opportunity from Wiz's acquisition uncertainty and CrowdStrike's agent strengths compared to Wiz's agentless approach.
• Cloud Security: Position to benefit from broader cloud migration trends.

Financial Projections

• Revenue/ARR Growth: Expected to reach 116% growth by FY27 start and >30% annual growth by end of FY26.
• Margins: Cost cutting and early restructuring target 100bps margin lift in 2026.
• ARR: Projected to be up 1% YoY in CONS vs 2% per Bernstein estimates.

Model & Investment Implications

• Price Target based on DCF (10% WACC, 3% long-term growth) and comparable multiples (18x Revenue).
• Price cut reflects weaker Q1, though growth rebound is anticipated.

Other Notes

• Demand significantly recovered in May 2025.
• Flex now represents significant share of total deal value (up from $6.8B RPO).
• Federal cloud contracts (~3% of business) are long-term sticky revenue sources.

Analyst Certifications

All models, views, and projections have been reviewed by listed analysts who certify independence.

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.