2025-06-10-Bernstein-JM斯马克公司（SJM）_2025年第四季度表现喜忧参半_2026财年指引远低于市场普遍预期_12页_392kb

报告摘要

Rating and Price Target: Market-Perform rating with a price target of $104, based on valuation metrics like 12-24 month EBITDA estimate.
Key Financial Metrics:
- Current price: $111.85, 52-week range: $125.42 to $98.77.
- Forward guidance for FY26 (April Fiscal Year) includes net sales growth of +2% to +4%, comparable net sales +3.5% to +5.5%, adj gross margin of 35.5% to 36.0%, and EPS of $8.50 to $9.50.
- Performance YTD: Absolute returns show mixed results across months.
4Q:25 Performance: Actual results showed a -1.9% revenue miss, but strong margins led to a 6c EPS beat; segments were mixed, with challenges in Retail Coffee and other areas like Pet Foods.
Segment Highlights: Retail Coffee faced input cost pressures and price increases, impacting profitability; Sweet Baked Snacks declined, while Pet Foods showed margin improvement from divestitures.
Investment Implications: Price target set at $104 implies alignment with current multiples. Upside risks include successful innovation or share repurchases, while downside risks involve persisting costs or GLP-1 drug impacts.
Risks and Concerns: Elevated coffee input costs, GLP-1 weight loss drugs affecting Hostess brand, and macro factors like SNAP spending could negatively impact guidance. Valuation sensitive to EBITDA multiples.