20250627-东海期货-黑色金属2025年半年度投资策略_需求继续下移_趋势难言扭转_10页_1mb

Demand and Economic Factors: Consumer demand for black metals is expected to continue declining in 2025, with manufacturing and export changes being critical. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments are showing moderate growth, but real estate remains sluggish, potentially limiting overall demand. Exports may support consumption, but amid global uncertainties like US-China trade tensions, demand risks weakening, which could push prices lower.

Steel Production and Supply: High profitability keeps steel production high, reducing voluntary cutbacks. However, government activities in September-October might lead to limited supply reductions of around 732,000 tons by December. While short-process steel yields may decrease due to higher costs, long-process production could remain elevated if demand holds.

Iron Ore Outlook: Iron ore supply is projected to increase by about 18 million tons in 2025, but demand weakening, especially post-October, could ease excess supply pressure. Iron ore prices are caught between strong demand from high steel profits and potential seasonal cuts, with a possible price range of 670-730 yuan/ton.

Investment Strategy: Steel prices are expected to decline further, with target ranges of 2800-3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 2900-3300 yuan/ton for coil. Iron ore has a chance of further下跌 amid supply-demand dynamics. Focus on monitoring US-China trade negotiations and domestic policy shifts for key risks.

Risks: Export disruptions, sharp declines in manufacturing demand, or unanticipated furnace fuel shortages could exacerbate market downturns. Quarterly demand dips and policy uncertainties may lead to secondary price probes in the fourth quarter.