牛津经济研究院-澳大利亚非法烟草的经济影响（英）-2021.12-43页_1mb

Summary of the Economic Impact of Illicit Tobacco in Australia

Core Content

This report by BIS Oxford Economics, commissioned by British American Tobacco Australia, examines the economic and social consequences of the illicit tobacco trade in Australia, focusing on the year 2019. It highlights the significant financial losses to the government and legal industry, as well as the broader societal impacts of the illicit trade.

Key Findings

Illicit Tobacco Market Penetration

• In 2019, 20.4% of Australia's tobacco consumption was estimated to be illicit, representing 3.0 million kg (or 3,000 tonnes).
• This level of penetration was higher than previous years.
• By 2020, the illicit market share had dropped to 16.9%, or 2.2 million kg (or 2,200 tonnes).

Revenue Losses

• The illicit tobacco trade caused an estimated $4.9 billion in revenue losses to both the industry and the government in 2019.
• $3.8 billion in tax revenue was lost due to the illicit trade, with $3.3 billion in excise duty and $0.5 billion in GST.
• $2.1 billion in revenues was estimated to have flowed to illicit operators, with 80% of this going to organised crime.

Economic Impact of the Legal Market

• The legal tobacco industry supported an estimated 20,000 jobs and $2.3 billion in GVA in 2019.
• Gross revenue from the legal market was $20.2 billion, with $16.0 billion in taxes and $4.2 billion in industry revenue.
• Tax and industry split: Approximately 79% of the legal market's revenue was attributed to taxes, while 21% went to the industry.
• GVA breakdown:
  • Retailers: $1.2 billion
  • Wholesalers: $1.0 billion
  • Transport and storage: $16 million (retail) and $91 million (wholesale)

Employment Impact

• The legal tobacco market supported 20,000 jobs in 2019:
  • 88% (17,650 jobs) in the retail sector
  • 6% (1,200 jobs) in the wholesale sector
  • 6% (1,200 jobs) in the transport and storage sector

Multiplier Effects

• The direct economic impact of the legal tobacco market was $2.3 billion in GVA.
• Indirect and induced impacts (multiplier effects) were estimated to be $2.4 to $2.6 billion across the economy, depending on the sector.

Illicit Market Composition

• Most illicit tobacco is imported, with 80% of illicit consumption attributed to imported products.
• A smaller portion is illegally grown within Australia, primarily for loose tobacco.
• Illicit tobacco includes:
  • Contraband: Legal products smuggled into Australia to avoid taxes and regulations.
  • Counterfeit: Illegally manufactured cigarettes, often sold as "fake cigarettes".
  • Unbranded tobacco: Sold in varying pack sizes, often as Chop Chop or inserted into empty cigarette tubes.

Key Source Markets

• Contraband cigarettes are primarily sourced from China, South Korea, and Indonesia.
• Counterfeit and unbranded products are also imported, though unbranded tobacco is increasingly being sourced from domestic operations.

Main Views

• The illicit tobacco trade has substantial economic consequences, including significant tax evasion, loss of industry revenue, and displacement of legal business.
• The rising prices of legal tobacco due to increased taxation have increased the profitability of illicit operators and incentivised smuggling.
• The illicit market is closely linked to organised crime, money laundering, and terrorist financing.
• The growth of illicit domestic production is a concerning trend, with domestic growers selling directly to the public.

Key Information

• Illicit tobacco is defined as factory-made cigarettes imported illegally and loose tobacco sold without proper licensing.
• Excise duty and GST are the two main taxes on tobacco, with excise duty being the primary source of tax revenue.
• Taxation accounts for 79% of the retail price of tobacco in 2019, with excise duty making up 70% and GST 9%.
• Price disparities between legal and illicit tobacco have increased, making the illicit market more attractive to consumers and criminals alike.
• The illicit market has displaced legal industry activity, including retail, wholesale, and logistics.
• The economic footprint of the legal tobacco industry includes GVA and employment, with multiplier effects extending beyond direct contributions.

Conclusion

The illicit tobacco trade in Australia is a major economic and social challenge, with significant financial losses to the government and the legal industry. The high profit margins and price disparities have made the illicit market attractive to both criminal organisations and consumers, while the increasing domestic component raises further concerns about agricultural land misuse and corruption. Addressing this issue requires effective enforcement, tax policy reform, and strategic supply chain management.