2021-11-30-牛津经济研究院-澳大利亚非法烟草的经济影响（英）_43页_1mb

Economic Impact of Illicit Tobacco in Australia: Summary

The report by BIS Oxford Economics, commissioned by British American Tobacco Australia, analyzes the significant socioeconomic consequences of Australia’s illicit tobacco trade. Key findings include:

1. Illicit Tobacco Market Size

• Estimated revenue losses from illicit tobacco: $4.9 billion in 2019 of which:
  • $3.8 billion in lost tax revenue (including excise and GST).
  • $1.1 billion loss to the legal industry (retailers, wholesalers, logistics).
• Illicit tobacco quantity: ~3,000 tonnes (20.4% of total tobacco consumption by weight).
  • 80% imported from countries like China, Indonesia, and the UAE.
  • 20% domestically cultivated.

2. Economic Consequences

• Tax Revenue Loss: Illicit operators avoided ~$3.8 billion in taxes ($3.3 billion in excise, $0.447 billion in GST), depriving the government of funds for public services.
• Industry Impact: Lost ~$1.1 billion in gross output, equating to $615 million in GVA (Gross Value Added) and 5,800 jobs across the legal supply chain.
  • Retail sector lost ~2,950 jobs; wholesale lost ~300 jobs.
• Value Added Adjustment (Appendix 1): Methodologies from ABS data estimate broader economic effects, including leakage to organized crime and domestic farming.

3. Socioeconomic and Social Impacts

• Organized Crime: ~78% of illicit activity linked to organized crime rings.
  • Launders funds via real estate and other investments, distorting the economy.
• Terrorism Financing: Illicit tobacco revenues may fund terrorist activities.
• Domestic Farming: Exploits land, labor, and water resources (~40% of illicit tobacco sold locally).
• Law Enforcement Costs: ~$4.9 billion lost raises spending to curb trafficking.
• Health Risks: Illicit products (e.g., counterfeit cigarettes) may pose health hazards.

4. Global Context

• International evidence confirms links to:
  • Transnational organized crime (~$870B annually).
  • Terrorism financing (~$7.8B linked to disruption in 2019).
  • Money laundering and economic distortions.

5. Key Recommendations

• Strengthen enforcement against trafficking.
• Address root causes of high-profit incentives (e.g., supplier price gaps).
• Counterfeit reduction and monitoring.
• Continued air-mail shipment bans and cross-agency efforts.

6. Uncertainties

• Varying estimates for illicit market scale (ATO vs. KPMG).
• Price elasticity concerns (if eradication reduces legal demand).
• Cash-based underground economies complicate tax collection and ATPs.

### **Note**: The analysis is based on 2019 data (adjusted for 2020) and uses econometric models.