牛津经济研究院-澳大利亚保险气候脆弱性评估的经济情景（英）-2025_21页_773kb

Summary of ECONOMIC SCENARIOS FOR AUSTRALIA'S INSURANCE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Core Content

This document presents the results of two NGFS-aligned macroeconomic scenarios and a counterfactual scenario for the Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ICVA) conducted by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) on behalf of the Council of Financial Regulators (CFR). The scenarios aim to evaluate the economic and household income impacts of climate change, specifically focusing on physical climate risks and transition risks, and how they affect insurance affordability and access.

Key Scenarios

1. Delayed Transition Scenario (DTS)

• Assumptions: Global annual emissions continue to increase until 2030, followed by strong mitigation policies to limit warming to 2°C by 2050.
• Transition Costs: Significant increase in emission prices from 2030, which impact economic activity and inflation.
• Economic Impact:
  • Emissions-intensive industries (coal, gas, manufacturing, livestock) face the greatest challenges.
  • QLD, NT, WA, and NSW are most exposed to coal and gas mining.
  • QLD and NT are particularly vulnerable to livestock agriculture.
  • ACT and VIC are less exposed due to their service-based economies.
• Inflation: Initially rises due to emission pricing, then falls as the economy transitions to cleaner technologies.
• Interest Rates: Central Bank (RBA) initially ignores inflation from emissions, but raises rates from 2035 due to persistent inflationary pressures.
• Household Income: Real household disposable income declines in the 2030s but recovers gradually by 2050, though it remains below the counterfactual.
• Growth Trends: Economic activity initially declines but recovers over time due to technological progress and reduced exposure to emissions pricing.

2. Current Policies Scenario (CPS)

• Assumptions: No additional mitigation policies beyond current ones, leading to global warming of 2.5°C by 2050.
• Physical Climate Risks: Increased frequency of extreme weather events leads to significant physical damage.
• Economic Impact:
  • Capital-intensive industries (agriculture, transport, manufacturing) suffer more from physical climate risks.
  • QLD faces more severe physical risks than other states.
  • WA crops are highly vulnerable, but their economic impact is minimal due to their small share of the state's economy.
• Inflation: Rises due to reduced productive capacity and supply chain disruptions.
• Interest Rates: RBA raises rates to counter inflation, even as economic activity slows.
• Household Income: Real household disposable income remains subdued due to weaker economic activity and persistent inflation.
• Growth Trends: Economic activity declines due to reduced productivity and capital stock damage, with limited recovery.

Key Findings

• Economic Vulnerability: Regions and states with high exposure to emissions-intensive industries (e.g., mining, agriculture, manufacturing) are more vulnerable to both transition and physical climate risks.
• Income Deviations: Both scenarios show deviations from the counterfactual, with DTS showing a slower recovery and CPS showing a more severe and prolonged decline.
• Impact of Emission Pricing: Emission pricing in DTS initially reduces economic activity and raises inflation, but leads to long-term recovery through technological improvements.
• Climate Damage Function: The enhanced damage function under CPS accounts for temperature volatility and extreme weather events, which have a more significant economic impact than average temperature increases.
• Adaptation: While the damage function assumes no adaptation, it incorporates current research indicating 50% reduction in damages due to adaptation measures.

Key Information

• Counterfactual Scenario: Assumes no further temperature increases and no new climate policy, serving as a baseline for comparison.
• Emissions Trajectories:
  • DTS: Emissions increase until 2030, then decline to limit warming to 2°C.
  • CPS: Emissions continue to rise, leading to 2.5°C warming by 2050.
• Geographic Exposure:
  • QLD, NT, WA, and NSW are most exposed to coal and gas mining.
  • QLD and NT are most exposed to livestock agriculture.
  • WA sees some offset from critical mineral demand.
• Industry Impacts:
  • Emissions-intensive sectors (coal, gas, manufacturing, agriculture) face greater challenges in both scenarios.
  • Service-based industries (public administration, health, education) are less affected.
• Central Bank Response:
  • In DTS, RBA raises rates from 2035 due to inflationary pressures.
  • In CPS, RBA raises rates earlier and more aggressively.
• Household Income Trends:
  • In DTS, real household disposable income recovers by 2050 but remains below counterfactual.
  • In CPS, real household disposable income remains subdued due to persistent physical risks and lower economic activity.
• Methodology:
  • Uses top-down and bottom-up approaches to forecast regional and state-level impacts.
  • Incorporates NGFS scenarios and Australian Climate Service data for climate risk assessment.
  • Models include industry-specific drivers, population trends, and geographic exposure.

Limitations and Further Research

• Top-down Methodology: Does not account for regional idiosyncrasies or government transition programs.
• Bottom-up Study: Conducted for high-exposure regions to address the above limitations.
• Data Sources: Relies on ABS data for income and employment, and Oxford Economics projections for economic activity and climate impacts.

Visual Summary

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth:
  • DTS: Gradual recovery after 2030.
  • CPS: Continuous decline due to physical climate risks.
• Consumer Price Inflation:
  • DTS: Initial rise, then decline.
  • CPS: Persistent rise due to reduced supply and increased damage.
• Household Disposable Income:
  • DTS: Below counterfactual through 2050.
  • CPS: Subdued growth due to physical risks.
• Central Bank Policy Rate:
  • DTS: Rises from 2035.
  • CPS: Rises earlier and more aggressively.

Conclusion

The report highlights the economic and income impacts of climate change under two contrasting scenarios. The Delayed Transition scenario shows a gradual recovery with moderate physical risks, while the Current Policies scenario presents a more severe and prolonged economic decline due to increased physical climate perils. Both scenarios underscore the vulnerability of certain regions and industries, with QLD, NT, WA, and NSW being the most at risk. The counterfactual serves as a reference point, but is not a realistic projection due to its assumption of no further policy action or temperature rise. The analysis provides valuable insights for insurance affordability and financial sector resilience in the face of climate risks.