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Ammonia Technology Roadmap Summary

Core Content

Ammonia is a critical component in the production of mineral nitrogen fertilizers, serving as a bridge between atmospheric nitrogen and the food we consume. It is used in approximately 70% of ammonia production for fertilizers, while the remaining 30% is utilized in various industrial applications, such as plastics, explosives, and synthetic fibers. Although ammonia has potential as a low-carbon energy vector, this application is not the focus of the current roadmap.

Ammonia production is energy and emissions-intensive, currently accounting for about 2% of total final energy consumption and 1.3% of CO₂ emissions from the energy system. The sector's current reliance on fossil fuels is significant, with nearly 70% of ammonia produced via natural gas-based steam reforming and the majority of the rest via coal gasification. This production method leads to substantial natural gas and coal consumption, with natural gas demand representing 20% of industrial demand and coal demand accounting for 5% of industrial coal demand.

The roadmap explores three possible futures for ammonia production:

1. Stated Policies Scenario: The industry follows current trends with incremental improvements, but it fails to meet a sustainable trajectory.
2. Sustainable Development Scenario: The sector adopts technologies and policies aligned with the Paris Agreement, aiming for over 70% reduction in direct CO₂ emissions by 2050.
3. Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario: A trajectory where emissions fall by 95% by 2050, compatible with global net-zero goals.

The report highlights the need for a shift in production methods, including near-zero-emission technologies such as electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, and fossil-based routes with carbon capture and storage (CCS). These technologies are expected to play a dominant role in future production, with electrolysis and CCS-based production contributing over 25% and 20%, respectively, in the Sustainable Development Scenario, and over 40% and 20% in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.

Main Viewpoints

• Ammonia's Role in Society: Ammonia is vital for modern agriculture and industry, with a focus on its role in fertilizers.
• Emissions and Energy Intensity: Ammonia production is a major source of emissions and energy use, with direct emissions equivalent to South Africa's total energy system emissions.
• Need for Decarbonization: To meet global net-zero targets, the industry must transition to low-emission technologies and improve efficiency.
• Role of Stakeholders: Governments, producers, financial institutions, and researchers all have important roles in enabling a sustainable transition.

Key Information

• Current Production: Natural gas-based steam reforming is the dominant method, with coal gasification also significant.
• Emissions Trends: Under the Stated Policies Scenario, ammonia production is expected to increase by nearly 40% by 2050, with CO₂ emissions rising by 3% by 2030 before declining.
• Near-Zero Emission Technologies: Electrolysis and CCS are key technologies for reducing emissions, though they are currently more expensive than conventional methods.
• Investment Requirements: The Sustainable Development Scenario requires USD 14 billion in annual investment for ammonia production by 2050, with 80% directed towards near-zero-emission routes. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario requires slightly higher investment at USD 15 billion.
• Milestones: By 2050, the Sustainable Development Scenario expects near-zero-emission technologies to account for nearly 70% of total production, while the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario aims for 95%.
• Infrastructure Needs: Significant new infrastructure, including electrolyser capacity and CO₂ transport and storage facilities, will be required to support the transition to low-emission production.

Recommendations

• Government Action: Implement supportive policies, mandatory emission reductions, and mechanisms to attract investment. Create a level playing field for low-emission products and develop hydrogen and CCS infrastructure.
• Producer Action: Develop transition plans, accelerate RD&D, and invest in supporting infrastructure.
• Farmer and Agronomist Action: Promote best management practices for more efficient fertilizer use.
• Financial and Research Institutions: Use sustainable investment schemes and continue research on emerging technologies.
• Early Action: Prioritize energy and use efficiency, and establish supportive policy mechanisms in the current decade to lay the foundation for long-term success.

Conclusion

The roadmap emphasizes the importance of a rapid and coordinated transition to more sustainable ammonia production methods. Without significant changes, the industry will continue to contribute to environmental degradation. The Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario both outline pathways to significantly reduce emissions, with the latter being more ambitious. The report calls for increased investment, innovation, and policy support to achieve these goals, highlighting the critical role of all stakeholders in the process.