国际能源署-氨技术路线图（英）-2021.10-168页_7mb

Ammonia Technology Roadmap Summary

Core Content

Ammonia is a critical component in global agricultural systems, serving as the foundation for all mineral nitrogen fertilisers. It plays a vital role in food production by bridging atmospheric nitrogen and agricultural use. Approximately 70% of ammonia is used in fertilisers, with the remainder supporting industrial applications such as plastics, explosives, and synthetic fibres. While ammonia has potential as a low-carbon energy vector, this is not the focus of the current roadmap.

Ammonia production is energy and emissions-intensive, accounting for about 2% of total final energy consumption and 1.3% of CO₂ emissions from the energy system. The industry is currently dominated by natural gas-based steam reforming (around 70%) and coal gasification (most of the remaining 30%). These processes contribute significantly to CO₂ emissions, with direct emissions reaching 450 Mt annually, equivalent to South Africa’s total energy system emissions. Indirect emissions from electricity generation and urea-based fertiliser application add another 170 Mt annually.

Main Viewpoints

• Ammonia's Role in Agriculture: Ammonia is essential for modern agriculture, with fertilisers being a primary use. Efficient use of nitrogen fertilisers is crucial for reducing environmental impact while maintaining crop yields.
• Global Demand and Production: China is the largest producer, accounting for 30% of global production and 45% of CO₂ emissions. The U.S., EU, India, Russia, and the Middle East account for 8–10% each. Ammonia is traded globally, with urea being the most widely traded derivative.
• Sustainability Challenges: Current trends show that ammonia production will grow by nearly 40% by 2050, but emissions will only decrease by 10% compared to today. Without significant changes, cumulative emissions could reach 28 Gt by 2100, which is 6% of the global warming budget for 1.5°C.
• Environmental Impacts: Beyond CO₂, ammonia production and use also result in nitrous oxide emissions and methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction and transport. These non-CO₂ impacts are substantial and must not be overlooked.
• Technology Pathways: The roadmap explores three future scenarios: Stated Policies (current trends), Sustainable Development (Paris Agreement-aligned), and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (compatible with global net zero by 2050). The latter requires a significant shift to near-zero-emission technologies.

Key Information

Current Production

• Energy Intensity: The global average energy intensity is 41 GJ/t, while Best Available Technology (BAT) levels are 28 GJ/t for natural gas-based and 36 GJ/t for coal-based production.
• Feedstock and Process Energy: Around 40% of energy input is used as feedstock (mainly hydrogen), and the rest as process energy (heat generation).
• Production Locations: The U.S., Middle East, and Russia rely heavily on low-cost natural gas, while China uses coal due to its abundant reserves.

Future Scenarios

• Stated Policies Scenario: Ammonia production increases by nearly 40% by 2050, with CO₂ emissions rising by 3% by 2030 before declining.
• Sustainable Development Scenario: Direct CO₂ emissions fall by over 70% by 2050. Near-zero-emission technologies account for nearly 70% of production by 2050.
• Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario: Direct CO₂ emissions fall by 95% by 2050. Near-zero-emission technologies make up nearly 95% of production, with electrolysis contributing over 40%.

Technology Pathways

• Near-zero-emission technologies: Electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, and fossil-based routes with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are the main pathways.
• Cost Considerations: Near-zero-emission production methods are typically 10–100% more expensive than conventional methods, depending on energy prices and regional factors.
• Investment Needs: The Sustainable Development Scenario requires USD 14 billion in annual investment for ammonia production by 2050, with 80% allocated to near-zero-emission routes. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario requires USD 15 billion.

Infrastructure and Deployment

• Electrolyser Capacity: The Sustainable Development Scenario requires over 110 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2050, equivalent to installing ten 30 MW electrolyzers per month.
• CO₂ Transport and Storage: 90 Mt of CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure is needed by 2050.
• Demonstration Technologies: Nearly 60% of emission reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario come from demonstration-phase technologies.

Stakeholder Roles and Actions

• Governments: Must establish supportive policies, create transition plans, and fund innovation. They should also develop markets for low-emission products and incentivise end-use efficiency.
• Producers: Need to adopt transition plans, accelerate RD&D, and invest in supporting infrastructure.
• Financial Institutions: Should use sustainable investment schemes to direct capital towards emission reduction opportunities.
• Researchers and NGOs: Can help develop labelling schemes and support early-stage technologies.

Key Milestones and Decision Points

• By 2030, around 10% of cumulative emission reductions to 2050 will be achieved in both the Sustainable Development and Net Zero Emissions scenarios.
• The roadmap highlights the importance of early action on energy and use efficiency, infrastructure development, and RD&D acceleration.

Conclusion

The roadmap underscores the necessity of transitioning to more sustainable ammonia production methods to align with global climate goals. It outlines the key technologies, investment needs, and policy actions required to achieve this, emphasizing the importance of stakeholder collaboration and urgent action in the coming decade.