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Heat Pump Investment Roadmap Summary

This document outlines the UK government's strategy to decarbonize heating and transition to heat pumps, aiming for significant market growth and manufacturing capacity.

Key Objectives:

• Replace fossil fuel heating in homes and businesses by phasing out new fossil fuel boilers by 2035.
• Increase annual heat pump installations from 55,000 (2021) to 600,000 by 2028 and potentially 1.9 million by 2035.
• Establish the UK as one of Europe's largest heat pump markets.
• Attract significant private and public investment into the heat pump supply chain and market.
• Support the shift from fossil fuel boiler manufacturing to heat pump manufacturing, potentially creating 300,000 UK jobs by 2028.

Policy Framework & Support:

• Regulation: Phasing out new fossil fuel heating; introducing Future Homes Standard (2025); Clean Heat Market Mechanism expected (2024).
• Public Investment: £12bn already pledged (considering more £6bn to 2028); programs include Boiler Upgrade Scheme, Social Housing Fund, Public Sector Decarbonisation Scheme.
• Heat Pump Accelerator Competition: Provides up to £30 million for manufacturing investment.
• Freeports & Investment Zones: Offer tax relief and support.
• Financing: Business loans (British Business Bank, UKIB), Capital Allowances, UK Export Finance guarantees.
• Innovation: Funding competitions, R&D tax relief (Patent Box), Smart Grants, Small Business Research Initiative, Heat Pump Ready (£60m).
• Skills Training: Grants, apprenticeships, funding for Institutes of Technology. Specific mentions of the Heating Training Grant and support for technicians.

Market & Growth Projections:

• Projected significant growth in cumulative deployments (up to 3.9 million by 2035).
• Heat pumps expected to generate over £28bn in cumulative supply chain investment by 2028.
• Investment opportunities include manufacturing/assembly (heat pumps, compressors, smart controls), thermal batteries, cylinders.
• Existing manufacturers (e.g., Mitsubishi, Ideal Heating, Octopus Energy) are expanding into the UK market.

Enabling Environment & Economic Context:

• The UK offers a strong economic environment with supportive policies, skilled labour, and a globally connected economy.
• Decarbonizing heating is critical for energy security alongside reducing emissions.
• Heat pumps are a cost-effective decarbonization solution suitable for most UK homes (estimated 90% suitable).

The roadmap presents a comprehensive plan supported by fiscal incentives, regulatory action, and public funding, designed to position the UK as a leader and attract significant investment in the heat pump sector.