20220401-招银国际-锦欣生殖-01951.HK-Strengthen_leading_positioning_in_ARS_industry_4页_990kb

报告摘要

Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

Jinxin Fertility, a leading player in the assisted reproductive technology (ART) and related services industry, has demonstrated strong performance and strategic growth in 2021 and is expected to continue its growth trajectory in the upcoming years. The company is focusing on enhancing its market position through strategic acquisitions and expanding its service offerings.

Financial Performance (FY20A - FY22E)

Revenue

FY20A: RMB1,426mn
FY21A: RMB1,839mn (+28.9% YoY)
FY22E: RMB2,640mn (+44% YoY)
FY23E: RMB3,176mn (+20% YoY)
FY24E: RMB3,785mn (+19% YoY)

Net Profit

FY20A: RMB252mn
FY21A: RMB354mn (+35.8% YoY)
FY22E: RMB483mn (+41% YoY)
FY23E: RMB603mn (+25% YoY)
FY24E: RMB744mn (+23% YoY)

Adjusted Net Profit

FY20A: RMB372mn
FY21A: RMB455mn (+22.3% YoY)
FY22E: RMB612mn (+23% YoY)
FY23E: RMB755mn (+22% YoY)
FY24E: RMB924mn (+22% YoY)

EPS (RMB)

FY20A: 0.10
FY21A: 0.14 (+31% YoY)
FY22E: 0.19 (+41% YoY)
FY23E: 0.24 (+25% YoY)
FY24E: 0.30 (+23% YoY)

Valuation Metrics

P/E (x):
- FY20A: 47.2
- FY21A: 36.1
- FY22E: 25.6
- FY23E: 20.5
- FY24E: 16.6
P/B (x):
- FY20A: 1.6
- FY21A: 1.4
- FY22E: 1.3
- FY23E: 1.3
- FY24E: 1.2
ROE:
- FY20A: 3.3%
- FY21A: 4.2%
- FY22E: 5.4%
- FY23E: 6.3%
- FY24E: 7.2%

Strategic Highlights

M&A Activity: Jinxin completed significant acquisitions in 2021, including the RMB3bn acquisition of Sichuan Jinxin Women and Children Hospitals (WCH) in November and the acquisition of RHC and ARC in Hong Kong in August.
Synergy with Jinxin WCH: The acquisition of Jinxin WCH, a Class III Grade A hospital, is expected to generate substantial synergies with Jinxin's IVF business. It has already shown strong cross-selling effects, with IVF patients directed to OB/GYN services increasing by 87% YoY in Jan-Feb 2022 and OB/GYN patients converting to IVF services increasing by 78% YoY.
Expansion in Shenzhen: Jinxin raised its equity stake in Shenzhen Zhongshan Hospital (ZSH) from 79.4% to 94.4% in January 2022. In February 2022, the company acquired a new property in Shenzhen for RMB1.7bn, aiming to expand its service offerings to include obstetrics, gynecology, pediatrics, and andrology services by 3Q23E. This is critical for its business positioning in the Great Bay area.
GPM Improvement: The gross profit margin improved by 2.3ppts to 42.0% in 2022, driven by economies of scale and recovery from the pandemic.

Analyst Recommendation

Rating: BUY
Target Price (HK$): 19.01
Current Price (HK$): 6.03
Up/Downside: +215.20%

Shareholding and Performance

Shareholding Structure

Jinxin Fertility BV: 14.42%
HRC Investment: 13.67%
Amethyst Gem Investments: 8.54%
Hillhouse: 7.45%
Others: 55.92%

Share Performance

1-mth: -27.6%
3-mth: -22.8%
6-mth: -43.3%

Key Ratios

Sales Mix (%):
- ARS: 69% (FY20A), 63% (FY21A), 51% (FY22E), 53% (FY23E), 54% (FY24E)
- Management service fee: 26% (FY20A), 29% (FY21A), 26% (FY22E), 25% (FY23E), 24% (FY24E)
- Ancillary medical services: 5% (FY20A), 5% (FY21A), 5% (FY22E), 5% (FY23E), 5% (FY24E)
- Jinxin WCH: 0% (FY20A), 2% (FY21A), 17% (FY22E), 16% (FY23E), 15% (FY24E)
- Others: 0% (FY20A), 1% (FY21A), 1% (FY22E), 1% (FY23E), 1% (FY24E)
Profit & Loss Ratios (%):
- Gross margin: 40% (FY20A), 42% (FY21A), 45% (FY22E), 45% (FY23E), 45% (FY24E)
- EBITDA margin: 31% (FY20A), 33% (FY21A), 31% (FY22E), 30% (FY23E), 30% (FY24E)
- Net margin: 18% (FY20A), 18% (FY21A), 18% (FY22E), 19% (FY23E), 20% (FY24E)
- Effective tax rate: 25% (FY20A), 23% (FY21A), 23% (FY22E), 23% (FY23E), 23% (FY24E)
Balance Sheet Ratios:
- Current ratio (x): 5 (FY20A), 2 (FY21A), 3 (FY22E), 4 (FY23E), 5 (FY24E)
- Trade receivables turnover days: 3 (FY20A), 2 (FY21A), 2 (FY22E), 2 (FY23E), 2 (FY24E)
- Trade payables turnover days: 53 (FY20A), 43 (FY21A), 43 (FY22E), 43 (FY23E), 43 (FY24E)

Key Metrics

IVF Treatment Cycles: Increased by 19.6% YoY to 27,354 in 2021 (vs 17.9% YoY decline in 2020)
Average Success Rate: 54.5% in headquarters hospitals
Net Debt to Total Equity Ratio (%): Net cash for all periods

Valuation and DCF Model

DCF Valuation (RMB mn):
- 2022E: 38,087
- 2023E: N/A
- 2024E: N/A
- 2030E: 77,467
Terminal Growth Rate: 4.0%
WACC: 10.2%
Equity Value (RMB mn): 38,993
Price per Share (HK$): 19.01