20170109-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_14页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Morning Express Summary

Core Content

The document provides a comprehensive analysis of the financial market landscape in early 2017, focusing on key sectors such as the automotive industry, equity research, and macroeconomic indicators. It includes research highlights, investment strategies, and a detailed overview of upcoming market events and company performance.

Geely Auto (175 HK)

Key Highlights

Performance: December sales grew by 101% YoY to a record 108k units, with FY sales increasing by 50% to 766k units.
New Models: New models such as Boyue, Emgrand GS, Emgrand GL, and Vision SUV contributed 33% of FY sales, indicating strong product performance.
System Maturation: The company's sales growth and channel efficiency suggest a maturing system, enabling high growth to be sustained.
Product Line Upgrades: LYNK&CO is expected to drive product line upgrades, with a price range of RMB150-200k. Old models are being facelifted, and enhanced power configurations (1.5T and 1.0T) are being introduced.
Valuation: The stock is trading at 8.5x FY17E P/E, which is 23% below the historical average. The TP is set at HK$13.00, implying a 13.6x P/E, which is considered attractive.
Catalysts for 2017: Expected to include strong sales performance of new models, FY earnings forecast, new dividend policy, and the launch of LYNK&CO.

French Presidential Election

Key Highlights

Election Timeline: The French presidential election is set for April 23rd and May 7th, 2017.
Candidates: The center-left party primary on January 22nd is a key event. Manuel Valls is the leading candidate, while others like Arnaud Montebourg and Benoit Hamon also have strong chances.
Political Risks: Increased political risks in Europe are expected due to the election and referendum cycle. The rise of Marine Le Pen could lead to a "Frexit" referendum, impacting markets.
Voter Sentiment: The incumbent center-left party faces challenges due to slow economic recovery, high unemployment, and national debt. Left-wing policies have disappointed many voters.
Election Outlook: The baseline case predicts a second-round race between Fillon and Le Pen, with Fillon likely to win. However, other outcomes cannot be ruled out.

A-Share Market Investment Strategies

Key Highlights

Market Type: The A-share market is expected to be a "bullish transforming / spiral market" in 2017, characterized by "surfing" and "maneuvering".
Indices Forecast: The SSE Composite Index is expected to range between 2900 and 3800, reaching a high of 3600 in Q2.
Sector Recommendations: Sectors such as home appliances, spirits, construction, and securities are recommended for mid-term allocation, along with stocks with strong earnings growth.
Market Dynamics: The market will likely see low volatility, with a "trampoline" effect due to non-industry themes gaining popularity.

What to Watch

Economic Data

Eurozone: Unemployment rate on January 9th is expected to remain at 9.80%.
China: Key economic indicators include FDI, M2 Money Supply, New Yuan Loans, and PPI/CPI growth. The forecast for PPI is 4.50%, while CPI is expected to remain at 2.30%.
US: Expected to see changes in consumer credit, job openings, and crude stock levels.

Company Events

Anacle Systems Limited: Announced a RES/INT DIV on December 30th, 2016.

Research Coverage List

Auto & Auto Parts

Geely Automobile: BUY, TP HK$13.00, 69% upside, 11.7x P/E in 2017E.
Brilliance China: BUY, 20% upside, 12.1x P/E in 2017E.
China ZhengTong Auto: BUY, 54% upside, 4.7x P/E in 2017E.
Great Wall Motor: BUY, 52% upside, 5.5x P/E in 2017E.
Fuyao Glass: BUY, 10% upside, 15.7x P/E in 2017E.

Oil and Gas

CNOOC: BUY, 29% upside, 12.5x P/E in 2017E.
Sinopec Kantons: BUY, 38% upside, 8.3x P/E in 2017E.

Property

New World Dev: BUY, 44% upside, 11.3x P/E in 2017E.
Country Garden: NEUTRAL, -19% upside, 7.6x P/E in 2017E.
Greentown China: BUY, 25% upside, 5.2x P/E in 2017E.

Hardware Technology

TCL Comm: NEUTRAL, -34% upside, 9.7x P/E in 2017E.
PAX Global: BUY, 58% upside, 8.9x P/E in 2017E.

Textile & Garment

361 Degrees: BUY, 13% upside, 10.4x P/E in 2017E.
ANTA Sports Products: NEUTRAL, -14% upside, 21.9x P/E in 2017E.

Consumer Staple

China Mengniu Dairy: BUY, 10% upside, 18.3x P/E in 2017E.
China Foods: BUY, 33% upside, 11.1x P/E in 2017E.

Consumer Discretionary

Intime Retail Group: BUY, 7% upside, 18.9x P/E in 2017E.
Gome Electrical: BUY, 16% upside, 38.4x P/E in 2017E.

Key Points

Geely Auto is expected to achieve its 2017 sales target of 1 million units.
The French presidential election is a critical event, with political risks increasing due to the rise of populist candidates.
The A-share market is expected to be a spiral market with low volatility and continued focus on non-industry themes.
Valuation for Geely Auto is considered attractive, with a TP of HK$13.00.
The document highlights various economic indicators and company events for the upcoming period, offering insights for investors.

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