20170109-招商证券_香港_-CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_14页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

CMS(HK) Research Highlights Summary

Geely Auto (175 HK)

Core Content: Geely Auto has shown strong growth in December 2016 with a 101% YoY increase in sales, reaching a record 108,000 units. FY sales also grew by 50% to 766,000 units.
Main Points:
- New models such as Boyue, Emgrand GS, Emgrand GL, and Vision SUV contributed 33% of FY sales, indicating strong product performance.
- The company's system is maturing, with improved channel efficiency and strong same-store sales (1.1k units at JV-brand level).
- The 2017 sales target of 1 million units is achievable due to the current undersupply of new models.
Valuation: The stock is trading at 8.5x FY17E P/E, which is 23% below the historical average. The TP is set at HK$13.0, implying a 13.6x FY17E P/E.
Earnings Growth: The 2015–2018E earnings CAGR is projected at 60%, suggesting strong long-term growth potential.
Investment View: Reiterate BUY rating with a forward-looking valuation premium of 20% over the historical average.

French Presidential Election 2017

Core Content: The French presidential election is a key political event in 2017, with significant implications for the Eurozone and global markets.
Main Points:
- The center-left party primary on January 22nd is a critical step in the election process, with Manuel Valls likely to win.
- Political risks in Europe are expected to rise due to the election and referendum cycle.
- The left-wing policies have disappointed many voters, leading to a fragmentation within the Socialist Party.
- The center-right candidate Francois Fillon and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen are the main contenders, with Fillon's free-market policies and Le Pen's protectionist stance potentially influencing the outcome.
- A potential Le Pen win could trigger a "Frexit" referendum, adding uncertainty to the EU's future.
Investment View: The baseline case predicts Fillon as the next president, but other outcomes cannot be ruled out. The election outcome will impact market sentiment and investor behavior.

A-share Market Investment Strategies (2017)

Core Content: The A-share market is expected to be a "bullish transforming / spiral market" in 2017.
Main Points:
- The market will be characterized by "surfing" (capitalizing on market fluctuations) and "maneuvering" (changes in capital allocation).
- The SSE Composite Index is expected to range between 2900 and 3800, with a potential high of 3600 in Q2 2017.
- Recommended sectors include home appliances, spirits, construction, securities, and stocks with strong earnings growth, along with some TMT and pharmaceutical stocks.
- The market will see continued sector rotation, but with less active themes compared to 2016.
- Volatility is expected to remain low, with capital inflow focused on short-term speculation.
- Correlation between SSE and ChiNext indices is likely to weaken or vanish due to differing market dynamics and regulatory impacts.

What to Watch: Economic Data and Company Events

Economic Data:
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Jan 9, 2017): 9.80%, with forecasted stability.
- China FDI (YTD): -0.20%, with no forecast provided.
- M2 Money Supply YY: 11.50%, showing continued growth.
- New Yuan Loans: Forecasted at 700.00bn, indicating potential liquidity management.
- PPI YY: Forecasted at 4.50%, suggesting rising industrial prices.
- CPI YY: 2.30%, with stable inflation expectations.
- US Consumer Credit: Forecasted at 18.60bn, showing potential growth.
Company Events:
- Anacle Systems Limited (8353 HK) announced a RES/INT DIV on 2017/01/09.

Research Coverage List (As of Jan 9, 2017)

Auto & Auto Parts:
- Brilliance China (1114 HK): BUY, 20% upside, 7,030M HK$ market cap.
- China ZhengTong Auto (1728 HK): BUY, 54% upside, 647M HK$ market cap.
- Geely Automobile (175 HK): BUY, 69% upside, 8,753M HK$ market cap.
- BAIC Motor (1958 HK): NEUTRAL, 3% upside, 6,896M HK$ market cap.
- Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): BUY, 52% upside, 8,513M HK$ market cap.
- Fuyao Glass (3606 HK): BUY, 10% upside, 7,653M HK$ market cap.
- China Harmony Auto (3836 HK): BUY, 128% upside, 553M HK$ market cap.
- Minth Group (425 HK): BUY, 37% upside, 3,434M HK$ market cap.
Oil and Gas:
- Sinopec Oilfield Service (1033 HK): BUY, 25% upside, 2,864M HK$ market cap.
- SPT Energy (1251 HK): BUY, 812% upside, 1,34M HK$ market cap.
- Petro-king Oilfield Services (2178 HK): NEUTRAL, 104% upside, 1,26M HK$ market cap.
- China Oilfield Services (2883 HK): SELL, -17% upside, 4,611M HK$ market cap.
- Anton Oilfield Services (3337 HK): NEUTRAL, -55% upside, 317M HK$ market cap.
- Sunny Optical (2382 HK): BUY, -20% upside, 5,278M HK$ market cap.
- TCL Comm (2618 HK): NEUTRAL, -34% upside, 9,145M HK$ market cap.
- PAX Global (327 HK): BUY, 58% upside, 743M HK$ market cap.
- Sky Light (3882 HK): NEUTRAL, -48% upside, 189M HK$ market cap.
- Tongda Group (698 HK): BUY, -6% upside, 1,496M HK$ market cap.
- Truly (732 HK): BUY, 57% upside, 1,163M HK$ market cap.
- Lenovo Group (992 HK): NEUTRAL, -5% upside, 7,108M HK$ market cap.
Textile & Garment:
- China Lilang (1234 HK): NEUTRAL, 15% upside, 692M HK$ market cap.
- 361 Degrees (1361 HK): BUY, 13% upside, 822M HK$ market cap.
- Xstep International (1368 HK): BUY, 15% upside, 947M HK$ market cap.
- ANTA Sports Products (2020 HK): NEUTRAL, -14% upside, 7,549M HK$ market cap.
- Trinity (891 HK): NEUTRAL, 46% upside, 128M HK$ market cap.
- I.T (999 HK): BUY, 15% upside, 482M HK$ market cap.
Consumer Staple:
- Hengan Int'l (1044 HK): NEUTRAL, 15% upside, 9,295M HK$ market cap.
- Biostime (1112 HK): BUY, 2% upside, 1,890M HK$ market cap.
- Jiashili Group (1285 HK): BUY, 33% upside, 165M HK$ market cap.
- Want Want China (151 HK): NEUTRAL, -0% upside, 8,403M HK$ market cap.
- Yihai International (1579 HK): BUY, 64% upside, 436M HK$ market cap.
- Uni-President China (220 HK): NEUTRAL, 19% upside, 3,003M HK$ market cap.
- China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK): BUY, 10% upside, 7,358M HK$ market cap.
- Tingyi (322 HK): BUY, 20% upside, 6,635M HK$ market cap.
- China Foods (506 HK): BUY, 33% upside, 1,194M HK$ market cap.

Key Market Indices and Global Macro Data

Stock Market Indices:
- Hang Seng Index: 22503, +0.21%.
- Hang Seng Finance Index: 30755, +0.05%.
- Hang Seng Utilities Index: 50795, +0.09%.
- Hang Seng Property Index: 30353, +0.91%.
- Hang Seng Industrial Index: 13244, +0.23%.
- HSCEI: 9611, +0.13%.
- CSI 300: 3348, -0.6%.
- Shanghai Composite Index: 3154, -0.35%.
- TWSE: 9372, +0.15%.
Global Macro Data:
- Brent Oil: 56.75, -0.26%.
- COMEX Gold: 1172.9, -0.71%.
- COMEX Copper: 254.4, +0.26%.
- LME Aluminum: 1718.0, +0.91%.
- LME Copper: 5595.0, +0.27%.
- BDI: 963.0, -2.03%.
- USD/RMB: 6.92, +0.44%.
- USD/HKD: 7.75, 0.0%.
- EUR/USD: 1.05, -0.71%.
- 1Y RMB NDF: 7.17, +0.19%.
- 3M Libor: 1.01, +0.42%.
- 3M Shibor: 3.44, +3.01%.
- 10Y US T-Note Yield: 2.42, +2.11%.