20170411-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_14页_491kb

报告摘要

US & China Macroeconomics Summary

Core Content

US-China Trade Talks and Relations

The first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida was marked by a positive tone and a focus on mutual cooperation. Although no major agreements or concessions were made, the meeting laid the groundwork for future collaboration. Key points include:

A 100-day plan to discuss key trade issues, with Trump emphasizing the reduction of the trade deficit and China potentially facilitating US imports, including agricultural and high-tech goods.
China's willingness to reduce its trade surplus to alleviate inflationary pressures.
Potential for increased foreign investment in China's financial sector, though the process is expected to be gradual.
The meeting avoided confrontation on traditional issues such as climate change, cybersecurity, and human rights, indicating a shift in priorities.

Challenges and Risks

Despite the positive tone, significant challenges remain:

The trade imbalance is structural and difficult to resolve through targeted measures.
The North Korea issue poses a potential risk, with the possibility of increased US military activity in the region.
The meeting did not include major announcements or press conferences, which may affect market perception.

Market Reaction

Markets viewed the meeting as a small victory, emphasizing the reduced risk of abrupt bilateral friction. The focus was on clearing misunderstandings and building common ground between the two leaders, which seems to have been achieved.

US Macroeconomic Data

Employment and Labor Market

Nonfarm Payrolls: Fell to a 10-month low of 98,000 in March, significantly below the consensus forecast and ADP employment data.
Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 4.5%, a new recovery low.
Workforce Participation Rate: Remained unchanged at 63.0%.
U6-U3 Spread: Narrowed by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4 percentage points.
Wage Growth: Slightly slowed from 0.3% MoM to 0.2% MoM and from 2.8% YoY to 2.7% YoY.

Key Sectors

Retail Trade and Information: Continued to drag the employment numbers.
Construction and Manufacturing: Underperformed compared to ADP data.
Higher Paying Industries: Finance and Healthcare underperformed, while Professional and Business Services remained strong.

Market Outlook

The weak payroll data may not derail the Federal Reserve's rate hike process, with June seen as the next potential meeting.
Wage pressures remain under control, but continued data weakness could increase uncertainty in the coming months.

China's A-share Research Highlights

Xiongan New Economic Zone

The establishment of the Xiongan New Area in Hebei is a significant national strategy, aiming to drive coordinated and green development, similar to the roles of Shenzhen and Pudong.

National Strategy: Seen as a major initiative for long-term economic development, emphasizing innovation, integration, and openness.
Regional Development: Aims to resolve resource allocation imbalances in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, especially by reducing the concentration of resources in Beijing.
Green Development: Focus on ecological environment and green transport systems, reflecting the government's commitment to sustainable growth.
Innovation and Technology: The zone will promote high-tech and innovation-driven industries, potentially reducing reliance on heavy and chemical industries due to environmental concerns.
Implementation Challenges: While there is potential for infrastructure investment, the government is prioritizing institutional development over short-term price surges.

What to Watch

Economic Data

Region	Date	Event	Prior	Forecast
US	2017/04/12	API Weekly Crude Stocks	-1,831.00mn	--
US	2017/04/14	Core CPI MM, SA	0.20%	0.20%
China		PPI YY	7.80%	7.60%
China		CPI YY	0.80%	1%
China		Trade Balance	-9.15bn	10bn

Company Events

Date	Ticker	Company	Event
2017/04/12	1913 HK	PRADA S.p.A.	ANN RES/FIN DIV (Y.E.31/01/17)
2017/04/13	0830 HK	Far East Global Group Ltd.	RES (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/17)
2017/04/13	0921 HK	Hisense Kelon Electrical Holdings Co. Ltd. - H Shares	1ST QTR RES (3-MTH-ENDED31/03/17)
2017/04/13	6288 HK	Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. -DRS	INT RES/INT ENDED28/02/17
2017/04/13	8013 HK	ECI Technology Holdings Limited	INT RES/INT ENDED28/02/17
2017/04/13	8256 HK	Netel Technology (Holdings) Ltd.	3RD QTR ENDED28/02/17

Research Coverage List

Auto & Auto Parts

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price	12-month TP% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2016	EPS 2017E	EPS 2018E	P/E 2016	P/E 2017E	P/E 2018E
Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$12.38	HK$16.0	29	8,319	0.73	0.88	14.1	11.7	10.2
China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$4.58	HK$6.7	46	1,349	0.22	0.41	9.3	12.9	10.2
Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$10.5	HK$16.5	57	12,035	0.57	0.97	16.7	9.8	9.0
BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$8.18	HK$9.0	10	8,455	0.29	0.73	23.1	9.2	9.0
Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	HK$8.97	HK$11.0	23	10,715	1.16	1.30	6.3	5.6	5.0
Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$26.25	HK$28.0	7	7,831	1.25	1.45	15.5	13.5	12.0

Technology, Media & Telecom

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price	12-month TP% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2016	EPS 2017E	EPS 2018E	P/E 2016	P/E 2017E	P/E 2018E
Tencent	700 HK	BUY	HK$226.4	HK$280.0	2,145,649	0.95	1.06	1.20	18.3	16.4	17.9
China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$85.4	HK$112.0	7,582	0.95	1.06	1.20	18.3	16.4	17.9
NetEase	NTES US	BUY	US$272.33	US$339.0	35,703	97.20	111.90	127.50	19.3	17.5	12.9

Machinery & Equipment

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price	12-month TP% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2016	EPS 2017E	EPS 2018E	P/E 2016	P/E 2017E	P/E 2018E
Zoomlion Heavy	1157 HK	BUY	HK$4.15	HK$5.42	727	-0.04	0.08	0.13	N.A.	41.0	27.1
CRRC	1766 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.72	HK$6.14	4,201	0.42	0.46	0.50	14.2	13.1	13.2

Pharmaceutical & Healthcare

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price	12-month TP% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2016	EPS 2017E	EPS 2018E	P/E 2016	P/E 2017E	P/E 2018E
Sinopharm Group	1099 HK	BUY	HK$35.75	HK$40.0	5,524	1.62	1.87	2.13	17.7	15.5	16.8
HEC Pharm	1558 HK	BUY	HK$17.0	HK$21.0	468	0.84	1.11	1.40	15.4	11.6	12.1

Conclusion

The US-China meeting signaled a potential shift towards cooperation, particularly in trade and economic development. However, underlying issues such as trade imbalances and geopolitical tensions remain significant challenges. In the US, the weak employment data did not derail the rate hike expectations, but continued monitoring is needed. In China, the establishment of the Xiongan New Area highlights a strategic push towards coordinated and green development, with a focus on innovation and reducing environmental concerns. The market remains attentive to upcoming economic data and company performance indicators.

展开完整摘要