20240311-南京证券-利率债周报_本轮行情或接近尾声_12页_1mb

报告摘要

The 10-year Chinese Treasury bond yield has dipped to a low of 225% during the week, signaling that this downtrend may be nearing its end.
This situation is compared to the 2016 scenario, where a similar inversion in the 10-year Treasury-MLF spread occurred, driven by factors like asset shortage and weak economic conditions.
The end of the current trend could result from regulatory intervention to control the spread or increased government bond supply, potentially limiting further yield declines to around 225-235% based on historical patterns.

Market Dynamics: Bond yields have fallen sharply, influenced by factors such as market interest rates diverging from policy rates (MLF), asset shortages, and low economic data visibility.
Risk Factors: A significant risk is a bond market correction following overperformance, along with potential volatility in A stocks, especially with oversupplied bonds like the 30-year variety.
Policy Implications: The upcoming Two Sessions aim for a 5% GDP growth target with moderate fiscal and monetary policies, including possible further liquidity easing, but market expectations suggest caution due to high prior growth.

Treasury Rates: 10-year yield reached 225%, with other maturities also declining, though the spread inversion with MLF may normalize.
Liquidity: Public market operations net-reco 11,140亿, funds interest rates rose slightly, and interbank markets showed increased borrowing.
Outlook: Short-term risks of correction are high, but long-term stability depends on policy adjustments and market alignment.