世界银行-《也门经济监测》，2023年秋季：地平线上的和平？（英）-2023-34页_870kb

Yemen Economic Monitor: Peace on the Horizon? Fall 2023 Summary

Key Economic Context:

• Yemen's GDP per capita declined by 52% (2015–2022), leaving 21.6 million people (2/3 of population) reliant on humanitarian aid. Poverty rose significantly from 49% in 2014.
• Human capital deteriorated: life expectancy fell to 63.7 years (2014: 67.4); HCI dropped to 37% (child's potential productivity).
• Economic fragmentation: Two zones (Aden/Houti) with divergent policies exacerbate disparities.

Recent Economic Developments (2022–2023):

• 2022: Modest GDP growth (+1.5%) driven by non-oil sector recovery; oil exports collapsed (~43% YoY due to Houthi blockade). Inflation eased in Aden from 59.8% to 36.4%, rose in Houthi areas to 21.6%.
• 2023: GDP contraction amid Houthi oil export blockade, severe fiscal pressures, inflation surge in Aden (YER depreciated sharply), and declining imports via Aden ports.
• Fiscal deficit widened, monetization of deficit increased. Electricity subsidies and low tax collection strain budgets.

Peace Dividends & Fragmentation:

• UN-brokered 2022 truce provided short-term economic gains, but collapse of informal truce in 2023 dashed hopes.
• NTL data shows Houthi-controlled areas experienced steeper post-truce contractions but gained during the ceasefire due to import access.
• Outlook: Recovery hinges on resolving political disputes and ending the blockade. Peace dividends (e.g., 6% avg. growth vs. 1% under conflict) depend on inclusive governance and decentralization.

Challenges & Risks:

• High inflation, foreign currency shortages, and fragmented institutions hinder growth.
• Risks include conflict resurgence, policy gridlock, and reduced foreign aid amplifying poverty and food insecurity (17M+ food insecure).

Conclusions:

• Immediate need: Address fiscal deficits, stabilize FX reserves, and alleviate subsidies.
• Long-term strategy: Decentralized governance, private sector reforms, and large-scale international reconstruction finance for inclusive recovery. A lasting peace remains the cornerstone.