2025-06-16-世界银行-也门经济监测_2025年春季_在风险上升的情况下持续脆弱（英）_40页_1mb

Yemen Economic Monitor: Persistent Fragility amid Rising Risks

Overview:
Yemen's economy remains significantly fragile amid escalating challenges. Real GDP per capita plummeted 58% since 2015, pushing the country into the third-poorest position globally, with over half the population in extreme poverty. Humanitarian needs surged as aid funds declined, creating a deepening humanitarian crisis marked by widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, and reduced access to education and healthcare. Economic fragmentation between Houthi-controlled and U.N. recognized government (IRG) zones exacerbated tensions, fueling social unrest and economic instability.

Economic Developments:
2024 saw continued contraction (-1.5%) due to the ongoing Houthi blockade of oil exports, trade diversions, recurrent fuel shortages, and inflation. The IRG fiscal deficit narrowed slightly due to grants, but monetary policy reforms struggled to combat inflation. Ongoing U.S. and U.N. sanctions, combined with the designation of the Houthi movement as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), disrupted financial systems, remittances, and aid delivery. Exports stagnated while imports surged, contributing to a widening current account deficit and falling foreign reserves.

Outlook and Risks:
The 2025 outlook remains grim, with real GDP projected to contract another 1.5%. Key risks include escalating regional tensions, global economic slowdown, and criminalization of necessary reforms. Oil blockade, sanctions, and persistent fragmentation threaten further economic contraction and instability. A lasting peace agreement is vital for attracting investment, restoring essential services, and unlocking Yemen's potential for growth and reconstruction.

Unlocking the Peace Dividend:
Yemen's recovery requires a three-pronged approach:

• Short-term: Restore civil service payments, eliminate trade barriers, and stabilize monetary policy.
• Medium-term: Enhance oil production, address subsidies, rehabilitate infrastructure, and reform public finances.
• Long-term: Integrate Yemen into the global economy, improve trade competitiveness, and promote inclusive governance to ensure sustainable development.

Key Statistics:

• Real GDP Per Capita: Down 58% since 2015.
• Fiscal Deficit (IRG Excluding Grants): 2.5% of GDP in 2024.
• Current Account Deficit: 18.0% of GDP in 2024.
• Oil Production: Expected to stagnate in 2025.
• Humanitarian Funding: Declined by 31%, leaving 43% of 2024's needs unmet.
• Growth Scenarios: 5% annual growth (peacetime), 2% average under status quo, rapid decline in escalation scenario.